Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Probability distribution for Namoi River at North Cuerindi(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.0413.638
Median7.6459.712
Mean17.33724.897
75% Quartile18.28126.019
Interquartile Range15.24022.381

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1143.569234.341
299.960166.062
385.453141.829
473.305123.670
564.945110.766
657.04895.067
752.31484.939
847.86976.132
942.61768.121
1039.00162.561
1136.55258.236
1234.36853.765
1332.62850.533
1430.69347.422
1528.65344.215
1627.41041.823
1726.06039.107
1824.54336.499
1923.60834.344
2022.59032.726
2121.72431.215
2220.84329.537
2319.86428.498
2419.13526.945
2518.29726.029
2617.46425.253
2716.86824.072
2816.33823.171
2915.67522.206
3015.12221.135
3114.59320.212
3213.95919.273
3313.35018.575
3412.83917.934
3512.44417.023
3611.95416.351
3711.63715.679
3811.22315.086
3910.83014.598
4010.48713.982
4110.09213.402
429.76212.992
439.52412.642
449.19512.186
458.98211.785
468.70311.336
478.44510.958
488.19210.463
497.93010.093
507.6459.712
517.4259.375
527.1929.051
536.8658.662
546.6348.325
556.4067.960
566.2047.570
575.9857.337
585.7347.103
595.4656.860
605.2706.534
615.0926.236
624.9496.021
634.8105.821
644.6475.588
654.4555.408
664.2895.227
674.1705.061
684.0054.850
693.8514.639
703.7234.491
713.5994.293
723.4384.138
733.2923.960
743.1783.805
753.0403.638
762.9353.492
772.8263.337
782.6863.197
792.5633.066
802.3902.899
812.2622.747
822.1202.606
831.9922.450
841.8482.324
851.7342.218
861.6192.078
871.5011.939
881.3951.830
891.3041.703
901.1581.568
911.0441.446
920.9391.308
930.8091.167
940.7001.006
950.5790.896
960.4720.776
970.3380.614
980.2020.486
990.0310.350


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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