Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Probability distribution for Namoi River at North Cuerindi(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile9.500
Median22.716
Mean43.559
75% Quartile53.620
Interquartile Range44.120

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1282.160
2222.015
3199.241
4181.030
5167.908
6150.269
7138.356
8127.627
9117.343
10109.910
11103.941
1297.566
1392.882
1488.322
1583.468
1679.731
1775.502
1871.341
1967.804
2065.098
2162.551
2259.795
2357.917
2455.250
2553.621
2652.245
2750.195
2848.607
2946.804
3044.873
3143.155
3241.457
3340.148
3438.886
3537.198
3635.885
3734.607
3833.442
3932.506
4031.302
4130.167
4229.343
4328.661
4427.742
4526.932
4626.044
4725.255
4824.248
4923.504
5022.716
5122.016
5221.328
5320.542
5419.807
5519.079
5618.218
5717.721
5817.227
5916.694
6016.011
6115.346
6214.871
6314.436
6413.911
6513.511
6613.109
6712.739
6812.267
6911.791
7011.456
7111.005
7210.651
7310.244
749.887
759.500
769.160
778.797
788.468
798.159
807.762
817.398
827.060
836.684
846.377
856.116
865.771
875.426
885.154
894.835
904.491
914.179
923.821
933.454
943.025
952.729
962.402
971.949
981.582
991.183


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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