Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Probability distribution for Namoi River at North Cuerindi(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile13.719
Median33.965
Mean64.777
75% Quartile82.097
Interquartile Range68.378

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1396.666
2318.929
3289.024
4264.825
5247.192
6223.172
7206.707
8191.687
9177.103
10166.440
11157.798
12148.488
13141.595
14134.841
15127.602
16121.997
17115.619
18109.310
19103.920
2099.782
2195.877
2291.637
2388.741
2484.620
2582.099
2679.965
2776.784
2874.316
2971.512
3068.505
3165.827
3263.178
3361.136
3459.166
3556.531
3654.481
3752.485
3850.667
3949.206
4047.327
4145.556
4244.272
4343.210
4441.777
4540.516
4639.134
4737.907
4836.343
4935.188
5033.965
5132.880
5231.816
5330.599
5429.463
5528.339
5627.011
5726.246
5825.486
5924.668
6023.619
6122.599
6221.873
6321.207
6420.406
6519.795
6619.182
6718.620
6817.902
6917.180
7016.671
7115.989
7215.454
7314.840
7414.302
7513.718
7613.207
7712.663
7812.170
7911.708
8011.115
8110.573
8210.069
839.512
849.056
858.670
868.162
877.654
887.255
896.788
906.285
915.830
925.312
934.780
944.163
953.740
963.274
972.633
982.118
991.565


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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