Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Probability distribution for Namoi River at North Cuerindi(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile12.31814.217
Median25.04843.441
Mean38.06670.343
75% Quartile50.039105.369
Interquartile Range37.72191.153

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1192.877315.830
2157.141271.561
3136.211254.175
4122.769239.861
5113.361229.241
6104.910214.432
7100.357203.982
893.921194.178
989.547184.349
1084.898176.930
1181.590170.745
1277.103163.885
1374.008158.657
1471.418153.394
1569.243147.582
1666.522142.949
1764.522137.516
1862.220131.959
1960.304127.051
2058.360123.175
2156.562119.422
2254.846115.240
2352.905112.313
2451.437108.045
2550.060105.370
2648.488103.069
2747.00799.568
2845.94296.793
2944.72693.576
3043.34890.047
3142.09786.833
3241.03583.587
3340.09581.038
3439.05578.540
3537.85275.139
3636.77772.446
3735.88469.782
3835.02267.324
3933.92765.324
4033.17062.724
4132.35760.244
4231.53658.430
4330.70256.917
4429.79954.865
4528.88553.045
4628.06751.038
4727.22649.247
4826.44546.952
4925.71145.248
5025.04843.441
5124.37641.832
5223.80740.252
5323.24238.444
5422.80836.756
5522.30035.085
5621.89433.117
5721.31531.983
5820.80730.861
5920.29329.656
6019.70928.117
6119.14926.629
6218.64825.574
6318.02024.611
6417.44823.460
6516.85622.587
6616.40521.716
6715.97420.921
6815.55719.911
6915.07818.906
7014.61018.202
7114.15517.266
7213.67716.538
7313.32015.709
7412.72214.989
7512.31814.215
7611.75113.545
7711.22312.837
7810.85712.203
7910.38111.614
8010.03910.869
819.58710.195
829.1599.577
838.7868.903
848.4058.361
857.9477.906
867.4797.317
877.1596.737
886.8316.289
896.4435.774
906.0835.230
915.5624.749
925.0454.213
934.5633.679
944.1063.079
953.5382.683
962.9282.260
972.1731.707
981.4811.291
990.5830.874


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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