Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1994) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1998) (GL)
Sep28.7631.2390.64717.023323.498
Sep-Oct43.9201.7890.69027.810365.271
Sep-Nov66.7432.3070.78656.708384.845

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1075.291176.930
2051.238123.175
3037.76990.047
4028.79762.724
5021.97043.441
6017.10328.117
7012.62318.202
808.68610.869
905.1325.230

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1176.181315.830
2140.228271.561
3121.583254.175
4108.885239.861
5100.081229.241
694.495214.432
789.267203.982
882.972194.178
978.689184.349
1075.291176.930
1171.396170.745
1268.434163.885
1365.439158.657
1462.764153.394
1560.899147.582
1658.975142.949
1756.569137.516
1854.603131.959
1953.045127.051
2051.238123.175
2149.829119.422
2248.044115.240
2346.463112.313
2444.938108.045
2543.599105.370
2642.374103.069
2741.14499.568
2840.10596.793
2939.00793.576
3037.76990.047
3136.94986.833
3235.99483.587
3335.03681.038
3434.00978.540
3533.06275.139
3632.16572.446
3731.26569.782
3830.65667.324
3929.67165.324
4028.79762.724
4128.05260.244
4227.37458.430
4326.60856.917
4425.89954.865
4525.25853.045
4624.57351.038
4723.88649.247
4823.41446.952
4922.68045.248
5021.97043.441
5121.41541.832
5220.89740.252
5320.56038.444
5420.00536.756
5519.50735.085
5619.04833.117
5718.59531.983
5818.10630.861
5917.58629.656
6017.10328.117
6116.63826.629
6216.14325.574
6315.65024.611
6415.30923.460
6514.78422.587
6614.33921.716
6713.98320.921
6813.46519.911
6913.08918.906
7012.62318.202
7112.24617.266
7211.82416.538
7311.40015.709
7411.01614.989
7510.64814.215
7610.19213.545
779.82912.837
789.47112.203
799.10211.614
808.68610.869
818.32110.195
827.9389.577
837.5298.903
847.1928.361
856.8447.906
866.4617.317
876.1066.737
885.8326.289
895.4865.774
905.1325.230
914.7274.749
924.2924.213
933.8073.679
943.2943.079
952.9222.683
962.3692.260
971.7671.707
981.1161.291
990.2340.874


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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