Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1994) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1998) (GL)
Aug27.9332.4820.65321.604175.982
Aug-Sep56.6963.7211.30038.626499.480
Aug-Oct71.8544.2701.34349.413541.253

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1039.763174.139
2027.022106.946
3020.49976.946
4015.81656.128
5012.42242.322
609.61830.948
707.17122.753
804.83715.671
902.5448.861

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1100.188521.532
276.473379.519
365.360331.797
458.207296.030
553.725271.522
649.310240.145
746.827219.891
844.257202.234
941.908185.779
1039.763174.139
1137.903164.928
1236.207155.210
1334.485148.138
1433.327141.303
1532.342134.069
1631.180128.528
1730.103122.275
1829.206116.140
1927.941110.930
2027.022106.946
2126.079103.196
2225.26999.133
2324.70096.360
2423.95992.416
2523.41990.003
2622.71487.960
2722.21184.911
2821.65282.542
2921.01379.845
3020.49976.946
3120.13574.356
3219.58971.785
3319.06069.796
3418.50867.871
3517.99365.285
3617.47463.264
3716.96161.286
3816.62759.477
3916.20358.015
4015.81656.128
4115.41854.338
4215.04853.034
4314.66551.951
4414.32350.483
4513.97649.184
4613.62747.753
4713.30246.476
4812.98344.837
4912.74743.618
5012.42242.322
5112.06741.163
5211.75440.020
5311.48938.705
5411.19937.468
5510.87936.234
5610.59734.766
5710.36533.913
5810.16433.062
599.89632.139
609.61830.948
619.37329.780
629.15528.941
638.83728.167
648.60427.229
658.34126.510
668.06025.783
677.82325.112
687.59024.248
697.36823.374
707.17122.753
716.91521.914
726.68621.251
736.43720.483
746.20319.805
755.97319.064
765.73118.410
775.53417.706
785.28117.064
795.03216.457
804.83715.671
814.58814.944
824.37614.261
834.16413.498
843.94612.867
853.70812.326
863.50711.608
873.28710.878
883.02910.299
892.7669.612
902.5448.861
912.2638.170
922.0227.368
931.7326.529
941.4265.528
951.0864.824
960.6634.028
970.2082.891
980.0001.936
990.0000.848


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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