Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1994) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Oct15.1570.5490.04410.78745.148
Oct-Nov37.9801.0680.13939.685190.054
Oct-Dec54.4972.2470.43373.404260.069

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1074.099146.028
2049.843101.225
3036.95173.513
4027.67950.632
5020.98834.570
6015.92121.969
7011.78213.962
807.7988.159
903.6503.811

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1185.867261.455
2139.740224.683
3123.154210.240
4108.515198.348
5101.466189.523
694.805177.215
789.360168.528
883.128160.376
978.402152.201
1074.099146.028
1169.847140.881
1266.877135.171
1364.404130.816
1461.670126.432
1559.471121.589
1657.316117.726
1755.213113.195
1853.718108.559
1951.813104.462
2049.843101.225
2148.56798.091
2246.66494.595
2345.23892.148
2444.02788.579
2542.86786.342
2641.75784.416
2740.62681.486
2839.45979.163
2937.94776.468
3036.95173.513
3135.72270.821
3234.67068.101
3333.58665.966
3432.66363.873
3531.79761.024
3630.82558.768
3730.06256.538
3829.34654.480
3928.52352.807
4027.67950.632
4127.07248.560
4226.06647.044
4325.34045.781
4424.69844.069
4523.95542.551
4623.30440.880
4722.66339.390
4822.05937.482
4921.55636.068
5020.98834.570
5120.50833.237
5219.89631.931
5319.32730.438
5418.80629.047
5518.35127.672
5617.80126.056
5717.36325.127
5816.84724.209
5916.41123.224
6015.92121.969
6115.45320.758
6215.05019.901
6314.60019.121
6414.15018.189
6513.81417.484
6613.47616.782
6713.07816.142
6812.63115.331
6912.25814.525
7011.78213.962
7111.44913.215
7211.10712.634
7310.64811.975
7410.31411.404
759.96210.791
769.50210.262
779.0259.704
788.5939.205
798.1678.743
807.7988.159
817.3417.633
826.7797.152
836.3606.629
845.9186.209
855.5355.858
865.1845.404
874.8284.959
884.3414.616
894.0224.224
903.6503.811
913.2733.446
922.8593.042
932.3492.642
941.9472.195
951.4411.902
961.0661.592
970.4421.189
980.0000.889
990.0000.592


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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