Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


Return to catchment list
Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1994) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1998) (GL)
Sep30.05918.7285.7490.64716.864323.498
Sep-Oct45.90263.8768.7590.69027.909365.271
Sep-Nov69.853208.7829.8790.78656.753384.845

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10115.235176.930
2082.018123.175
3062.13290.047
4047.85362.724
5037.44043.441
6029.50428.117
7022.47318.202
8016.15110.869
909.6515.230

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1234.606315.830
2197.891271.561
3179.354254.175
4163.513239.861
5150.081229.241
6141.308214.432
7133.584203.982
8126.789194.178
9120.116184.349
10115.235176.930
11110.546170.745
12105.923163.885
13101.712158.657
1498.203153.394
1595.329147.582
1692.414142.949
1789.714137.516
1886.806131.959
1984.166127.051
2082.018123.175
2179.933119.422
2277.390115.240
2375.381112.313
2473.157108.045
2570.947105.370
2668.795103.069
2766.52499.568
2865.11396.793
2963.76493.576
3062.13290.047
3159.95086.833
3258.66583.587
3357.04681.038
3455.56578.540
3554.01675.139
3652.50872.446
3751.29969.782
3849.90767.324
3948.79465.324
4047.85362.724
4146.69560.244
4245.87658.430
4344.88756.917
4443.80854.865
4542.21853.045
4641.11951.038
4740.04749.247
4839.25646.952
4938.43645.248
5037.44043.441
5136.58841.832
5235.92940.252
5335.11038.444
5434.37236.756
5533.48435.085
5632.60533.117
5731.78931.983
5830.89230.861
5930.03929.656
6029.50428.117
6128.61326.629
6227.86425.574
6327.19124.611
6426.48523.460
6525.78422.587
6625.21421.716
6724.53120.921
6823.71319.911
6923.10518.906
7022.47318.202
7121.78617.266
7221.25816.538
7320.64715.709
7420.05414.989
7519.16514.215
7618.54913.545
7717.99812.837
7817.36212.203
7916.77411.614
8016.15110.869
8115.49510.195
8214.9559.577
8314.2758.903
8413.6108.361
8512.9507.906
8612.3997.317
8711.6156.737
8811.0526.289
8910.2375.774
909.6515.230
919.1014.749
928.4384.213
937.5943.679
946.8803.079
955.9862.683
965.2992.260
974.2131.707
983.2231.291
991.9470.874


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence