Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1977) (GL)
Mar10.58712.77529.6910.4674.098137.125
Mar-Apr15.94618.57032.4550.5646.348173.934
Mar-May24.05122.77934.1870.6229.338286.314

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1054.83153.864
2035.22528.294
3024.74218.468
4018.08412.367
5013.5608.689
6010.4505.921
707.6624.120
805.1942.698
902.9531.489

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1169.051247.696
2129.808157.606
3108.032130.252
491.724111.165
581.44698.258
675.00483.207
769.25073.831
862.80665.861
958.54358.742
1054.83153.864
1152.11350.101
1249.87546.236
1347.56743.457
1445.12240.792
1543.05738.053
1641.56936.015
1739.53933.707
1838.07731.492
1936.71029.665
2035.22528.294
2133.76227.013
2232.81325.592
2331.65524.712
2430.45423.397
2529.36522.621
2628.20621.962
2727.33720.961
2826.32920.197
2925.43019.377
3024.74218.468
3123.99417.684
3223.26216.885
3322.54816.290
3421.85915.745
3521.23414.967
3620.42814.393
3719.85013.820
3819.17213.312
3918.64312.894
4018.08412.367
4117.46911.870
4217.03211.517
4316.47711.217
4416.05610.825
4515.60110.479
4615.15510.092
4714.7119.766
4814.2809.339
4913.9089.018
5013.5608.689
5113.2998.396
5212.9558.115
5312.6347.778
5412.1897.485
5511.8657.167
5611.6226.827
5711.3256.623
5810.9606.419
5910.7256.206
6010.4505.921
6110.1355.659
629.8905.471
639.5905.295
649.3035.090
658.9644.930
668.7394.771
678.4374.625
688.1934.438
697.9104.251
707.6624.120
717.4093.944
727.1483.806
736.9043.648
746.6203.510
756.3823.360
766.1553.230
775.9323.091
785.7252.965
795.4292.848
805.1942.698
815.0052.561
824.7852.433
834.5442.293
844.3582.179
854.1432.082
863.9141.955
873.6661.828
883.3901.729
893.1611.613
902.9531.489
912.7071.377
922.4661.249
932.2361.119
942.0100.969
951.7620.867
961.4750.754
971.2420.601
980.8970.479
990.4940.349


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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