Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1994) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1998) (GL)
Aug28.57013.1772.4820.65322.155175.982
Aug-Sep58.02118.9263.7211.30039.480499.480
Aug-Oct73.54321.9364.2701.34350.788541.253

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1084.097174.139
2059.359106.946
3045.66476.946
4036.42256.128
5029.24242.322
6023.73930.948
7018.65522.753
8013.75515.671
908.5858.861

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1189.694521.532
2152.251379.519
3130.936331.797
4117.857296.030
5108.819271.522
6101.940240.145
796.357219.891
891.266202.234
987.317185.779
1084.097174.139
1179.967164.928
1276.765155.210
1374.132148.138
1471.226141.303
1569.658134.069
1666.828128.528
1764.859122.275
1862.762116.140
1961.038110.930
2059.359106.946
2157.953103.196
2256.13199.133
2354.23996.360
2453.01592.416
2551.65390.003
2650.44387.960
2749.22384.911
2848.00982.542
2946.87479.845
3045.66476.946
3144.69074.356
3243.61471.785
3342.67769.796
3441.73667.871
3540.79265.285
3639.92263.264
3738.87861.286
3838.07959.477
3937.32358.015
4036.42256.128
4135.62454.338
4235.01253.034
4334.10851.951
4433.32750.483
4532.57149.184
4631.92047.753
4731.21446.476
4830.57244.837
4929.94043.618
5029.24242.322
5128.61441.163
5227.88640.020
5327.29138.705
5426.76637.468
5526.26436.234
5625.83734.766
5725.33333.913
5824.81433.062
5924.24232.139
6023.73930.948
6123.05829.780
6222.54028.941
6322.08028.167
6421.64027.229
6521.23226.510
6620.71225.783
6720.11325.112
6819.60924.248
6919.11523.374
7018.65522.753
7118.18121.914
7217.74721.251
7317.29620.483
7416.73419.805
7516.18119.064
7615.70118.410
7715.25817.706
7814.75617.064
7914.18416.457
8013.75515.671
8113.30314.944
8212.80414.261
8312.35713.498
8411.83712.867
8511.23412.326
8610.77711.608
8710.23710.878
889.75510.299
899.1279.612
908.5858.861
918.0268.170
927.5417.368
936.9986.529
946.4295.528
955.8314.824
965.0144.028
974.1142.891
982.9841.936
991.8340.848


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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