Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi



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Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1977) (GL)
Mar11.06529.6910.1450.4676.784137.125
Mar-Apr16.35732.4551.0320.5649.119173.934
Mar-May24.29934.1871.9240.62211.925286.314

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.98953.864
204.53228.294
302.96518.468
402.02812.367
501.3638.689
600.9065.921
700.5124.120
800.1932.698
900.0001.489

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
133.058247.696
221.143157.606
316.469130.252
414.482111.165
512.93298.258
611.26783.207
710.08273.831
89.27465.861
98.49458.742
107.98953.864
117.44750.101
126.98146.236
136.63343.457
146.26940.792
155.89038.053
165.52536.015
175.31133.707
185.02231.492
194.79029.665
204.53228.294
214.30027.013
224.13325.592
234.00624.712
243.81723.397
253.66222.621
263.50321.962
273.36720.961
283.24320.197
293.10319.377
302.96518.468
312.84617.684
322.73916.885
332.64316.290
342.54515.745
352.45914.967
362.37914.393
372.30013.820
382.21613.312
392.13612.894
402.02812.367
411.95211.870
421.86511.517
431.79711.217
441.74610.825
451.67110.479
461.61210.092
471.5359.766
481.4789.339
491.4219.018
501.3638.689
511.3098.396
521.2618.115
531.2167.778
541.1697.485
551.1207.167
561.0816.827
571.0346.623
581.0026.419
590.9536.206
600.9065.921
610.8655.659
620.8275.471
630.7865.295
640.7505.090
650.7034.930
660.6704.771
670.6334.625
680.5944.438
690.5644.251
700.5124.120
710.4813.944
720.4483.806
730.4173.648
740.3873.510
750.3553.360
760.3223.230
770.2863.091
780.2552.965
790.2222.848
800.1932.698
810.1642.561
820.1392.433
830.1092.293
840.0802.179
850.0572.082
860.0271.955
870.0001.828
880.0001.729
890.0001.613
900.0001.489
910.0001.377
920.0001.249
930.0001.119
940.0000.969
950.0000.867
960.0000.754
970.0000.601
980.0000.479
990.0000.349


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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