Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi



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Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi ( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1994) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1998) (GL)
Jul25.0335.1520.8010.9369.86797.404
Jul-Aug52.9677.6343.3831.58931.470273.386
Jul-Sep81.7298.8737.7112.23648.493596.884

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1085.016208.434
2053.590119.797
3038.30481.886
4027.96356.935
5020.76641.276
6015.60829.083
7011.34020.802
807.45714.079
903.7498.110

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1246.928613.819
2183.303463.219
3153.160408.113
4137.087365.093
5125.664334.757
6112.230294.948
7101.403268.732
893.770245.604
989.892223.873
1085.016208.434
1180.300196.194
1275.022183.277
1371.505173.887
1468.415164.825
1565.800155.260
1663.137147.956
1760.494139.746
1857.869131.727
1955.763124.953
2053.590119.797
2152.161114.964
2249.760109.755
2347.794106.216
2446.168101.208
2544.91198.158
2643.45895.587
2741.88291.765
2840.87288.810
2939.44685.463
3038.30481.886
3136.86278.710
3235.85275.575
3334.44673.163
3433.39670.840
3532.28967.738
3631.34365.328
3730.62262.984
3829.72560.851
3928.86459.137
4027.96356.935
4127.18054.860
4226.37953.356
4325.40052.111
4424.65950.433
4523.87748.956
4623.28547.337
4722.59445.899
4822.05244.066
4921.39242.711
5020.76641.276
5120.25440.002
5219.74038.752
5319.17137.321
5418.60135.985
5518.09934.660
5617.52933.095
5717.05132.191
5816.57631.293
5916.03030.325
6015.60829.083
6115.15827.874
6214.74827.011
6314.25226.220
6413.83025.267
6513.45824.539
6612.95723.808
6712.53923.136
6812.14422.277
6911.73921.412
7011.34020.802
7110.94719.982
7210.46219.339
7310.10618.598
749.73817.949
759.34417.243
769.00516.624
778.64815.963
788.25415.365
797.78414.802
807.45714.079
817.04913.416
826.67412.798
836.30312.114
845.91711.553
855.59311.076
865.30710.449
874.8999.817
884.5439.321
894.1608.739
903.7498.110
913.3567.538
922.9216.884
932.6256.211
942.2875.425
951.8024.883
961.3004.282
970.8053.449
980.1682.774
990.0002.038


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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