Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi



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Historical and exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi ( Jan 2013 )

Historical Observations
Average (1973+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1981) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1976) (GL)
Jan22.74712.4651.3900.05218.922152.512
Jan-Feb38.198124.91210.0740.62934.426277.903
Jan-Mar48.785137.68739.7650.89838.524327.017

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10106.308
2054.112
3034.003
4021.872
5014.809
609.687
706.482
804.056
902.099

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1368.221
2271.408
3235.238
4207.247
5186.822
6161.327
7144.495
8129.620
9115.911
10106.308
1198.795
1290.995
1385.340
1479.888
1574.260
1670.061
1765.295
1860.719
1956.943
2054.112
2151.471
2248.545
2346.736
2444.036
2542.447
2641.102
2739.060
2837.505
2935.843
3034.003
3132.423
3230.818
3329.628
3428.538
3526.991
3625.855
3724.722
3823.723
3922.903
4021.872
4120.903
4220.220
4319.638
4418.881
4518.216
4617.475
4716.852
4816.038
4915.431
5014.809
5114.259
5213.732
5313.102
5412.556
5511.968
5611.342
5710.967
5810.593
5910.205
609.687
619.215
628.875
638.559
648.193
657.910
667.627
677.368
687.040
696.712
706.482
716.176
725.938
735.665
745.428
755.173
764.951
774.715
784.504
794.307
804.056
813.828
823.618
833.387
843.201
853.044
862.839
872.635
882.477
892.294
902.099
911.925
921.728
931.530
941.304
951.153
960.988
970.769
980.598
990.421


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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