Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1067.160114.527
2054.83594.257
3046.27580.991
4039.77168.654
5033.74958.052
6028.56547.024
7023.57437.259
8018.21027.331
9012.75116.662

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
199.643165.735
290.528149.448
385.260143.049
481.015137.778
577.619133.865
674.737128.403
772.526124.546
870.412120.921
968.676117.281
1067.160114.527
1165.420112.227
1263.611109.670
1362.549107.716
1461.412105.744
1560.111103.559
1659.037101.810
1758.02699.751
1856.81597.633
1955.75595.752
2054.83594.257
2154.00192.802
2253.20491.170
2352.36590.020
2451.61088.330
2550.50087.264
2649.73386.340
2748.86484.923
2847.73883.790
2947.02582.463
3046.27580.991
3145.38579.632
3244.60578.240
3343.93177.133
3443.29276.033
3542.66074.511
3642.07273.283
3741.44272.048
3840.72870.887
3940.25569.926
4039.77168.654
4139.14767.413
4238.37566.486
4337.61665.701
4437.04964.616
4536.56863.633
4636.11362.524
4735.57161.511
4834.97660.178
4934.36759.160
5033.74958.052
5133.26357.038
5232.60056.017
5332.03454.813
5431.49253.653
5531.00452.466
5630.36351.014
5729.89950.150
5829.48049.273
5929.03148.304
6028.56547.024
6128.01445.737
6227.51544.792
6327.05743.905
6426.63842.810
6526.24341.954
6625.81041.076
6725.30340.253
6824.75839.175
6924.06838.063
7023.57437.259
7122.99936.157
7222.51635.272
7321.98434.231
7421.40433.298
7520.77432.263
7620.34631.337
7719.82830.327
7819.27329.394
7918.78628.500
8018.21027.331
8117.70126.233
8217.19125.192
8316.61624.015
8416.04523.033
8515.48422.186
8614.96921.053
8714.40619.893
8813.87918.968
8913.27917.869
9012.75116.662
9111.97615.552
9211.16114.265
9310.45812.923
949.82011.337
958.90610.234
968.0009.004
977.0527.290
985.7935.897
993.9954.381


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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