Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10129.412160.273
20110.736133.584
3097.204116.091
4085.78199.772
5075.92085.666
6067.11170.829
7057.96757.433
8047.45643.372
9035.61327.466

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1181.557227.651
2166.704206.222
3158.560197.803
4151.741190.868
5146.793185.719
6142.881178.534
7138.707173.457
8135.091168.687
9132.228163.897
10129.412160.273
11127.775157.247
12124.990153.881
13122.107151.308
14120.127148.712
15118.083145.835
16116.574143.532
17114.775140.820
18113.353138.031
19112.342135.553
20110.736133.584
21109.239131.667
22108.057129.516
23106.810128.000
24105.518125.773
25104.226124.366
26102.494123.148
27101.393121.280
2899.921119.785
2998.713118.034
3097.204116.091
3195.983114.296
3294.731112.458
3393.688110.994
3492.840109.541
3591.788107.528
3690.417105.904
3789.252104.269
3887.966102.731
3986.982101.459
4085.78199.772
4184.91198.126
4283.57196.896
4382.62695.854
4481.73494.412
4580.44993.105
4679.12191.630
4778.18290.281
4877.51988.504
4976.68387.146
5075.92085.666
5175.14484.311
5274.40782.944
5373.60681.331
5472.62379.774
5571.75478.179
5670.98976.225
5770.12375.060
5869.08573.875
5968.07072.564
6067.11170.829
6166.08069.081
6265.07067.794
6364.33066.585
6463.33765.088
6562.47263.915
6661.58862.709
6760.61261.576
6859.99760.088
6958.92458.548
7057.96757.433
7156.72055.898
7255.75854.662
7354.80753.202
7453.73851.890
7552.71650.427
7651.74349.114
7750.91347.676
7849.68346.342
7948.85645.059
8047.45643.372
8146.29641.780
8245.31440.261
8344.06838.533
8443.05437.084
8541.96535.827
8640.76934.134
8739.43532.391
8838.52830.992
8937.06129.317
9035.61327.466
9134.64825.749
9233.00023.743
9331.51421.632
9429.54219.109
9527.39717.339
9625.29515.347
9722.40112.540
9819.66210.230
9916.3737.685


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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