Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1021.57338.627
2017.73228.677
3015.33223.434
4013.31819.274
5011.75016.147
6010.36113.234
709.07910.852
807.6238.502
905.8965.822

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
137.31579.339
231.53163.332
329.09457.922
427.08253.793
525.82050.907
624.63347.119
723.79744.602
823.00842.349
922.12240.192
1021.57338.627
1121.06737.362
1220.55436.000
1320.22334.989
1419.71733.994
1519.29832.921
1618.91632.083
1718.59131.122
1818.30830.159
1917.97129.325
2017.73228.677
2117.40128.058
2217.20127.377
2316.95626.906
2416.70026.226
2516.47625.804
2616.16525.443
2715.91324.898
2815.70024.469
2915.48923.974
3015.33223.434
3115.11422.945
3214.87022.452
3314.68722.066
3414.48721.687
3514.26121.172
3614.07820.763
3713.88420.358
3813.70319.982
3913.50619.675
4013.31819.274
4113.14718.889
4212.98118.604
4312.79918.366
4412.64818.040
4512.52217.747
4612.34917.422
4712.18717.128
4812.03616.745
4911.89416.457
5011.75016.147
5111.60415.866
5211.46015.587
5311.29615.260
5411.17414.949
5511.02914.635
5610.91714.255
5710.75114.031
5810.63813.805
5910.51313.558
6010.36113.234
6110.19812.912
6210.07312.677
639.95312.458
649.81512.190
659.71411.981
669.59811.768
679.47811.569
689.36811.310
699.21611.044
709.07910.852
718.94910.591
728.80210.381
738.65610.135
748.5239.914
758.4009.670
768.2419.451
778.0929.213
787.8918.992
797.7438.780
807.6238.502
817.4688.239
827.3277.989
837.1717.703
846.9957.462
856.8217.253
866.6366.969
876.4436.675
886.2886.436
896.1026.147
905.8965.822
915.7085.516
925.4785.149
935.2594.752
944.9944.257
954.7473.893
964.4703.464
973.9832.812
983.4872.220
992.8221.482


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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