Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


Return to catchment list
Product list for Ovens River at Bright


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10203.221202.681
20167.782164.211
30144.950139.568
40126.388117.287
50110.14898.826
6097.53980.453
7084.70764.915
8070.61149.646
9053.85533.227

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1319.898301.472
2283.834269.945
3260.063257.574
4248.277247.394
5237.143239.845
6228.439229.322
7221.048221.899
8214.291214.935
9207.874207.954
10203.221202.681
11196.887198.284
12192.644193.402
13188.878189.678
14185.403185.925
15182.090181.774
16179.234178.458
17175.784174.562
18172.540170.564
19169.730167.020
20167.782164.211
21165.460161.482
22162.310158.427
23159.978156.279
24157.098153.132
25154.713151.148
26152.708149.434
27150.716146.811
28148.392144.718
29146.808142.273
30144.950139.568
31142.808137.079
32141.559134.538
33139.676132.521
34137.440130.525
35135.266127.772
36133.324125.560
37131.528123.341
38129.790121.263
39127.917119.549
40126.388117.287
41124.707115.089
42123.122113.455
43121.699112.074
44119.713110.171
45117.956108.454
46116.390106.525
47114.989104.770
48113.327102.469
49111.494100.721
50110.14898.826
51108.97097.101
52107.71595.370
53106.47593.338
54105.37891.390
55104.15689.408
56102.98186.998
57101.52685.571
58100.27484.127
5998.85082.539
6097.53980.453
6196.45878.367
6295.29276.843
6393.84375.418
6492.39473.668
6591.10772.305
6689.79370.912
6788.69069.611
6887.53467.913
6986.28266.169
7084.70764.915
7183.33663.199
7281.79061.826
7380.45960.216
7479.05958.778
7577.66457.186
7676.16055.765
7774.97954.219
7873.71652.793
7972.18551.429
8070.61149.646
8169.22747.974
8267.41346.387
8365.78644.591
8464.02643.091
8562.60841.795
8661.03040.055
8759.30438.268
8857.39636.834
8955.57535.122
9053.85533.227
9151.47031.468
9248.84629.404
9346.92127.221
9444.51524.584
9541.38222.711
9637.72620.571
9734.52317.481
9829.70914.851
9923.55311.820


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence