Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1089.951114.527
2077.39494.257
3068.25580.991
4060.16968.654
5053.10058.052
6046.79347.024
7039.95737.259
8032.20527.331
9023.70816.662

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1123.955165.735
2114.197149.448
3107.921143.049
4104.029137.778
5100.865133.865
698.273128.403
795.615124.546
893.728120.921
991.480117.281
1089.951114.527
1188.319112.227
1286.811109.670
1385.558107.716
1484.267105.744
1582.958103.559
1681.488101.810
1780.33599.751
1879.20697.633
1978.28195.752
2077.39494.257
2176.35592.802
2275.58791.170
2374.72890.020
2473.83188.330
2572.85187.264
2671.87586.340
2770.83884.923
2869.96983.790
2969.13882.463
3068.25580.991
3167.55879.632
3266.44678.240
3365.64377.133
3464.74576.033
3563.98874.511
3663.20673.283
3762.41272.048
3861.79570.887
3961.03869.926
4060.16968.654
4159.48067.413
4258.62566.486
4357.92265.701
4457.21464.616
4556.63763.633
4656.03162.524
4755.04461.511
4854.56560.178
4953.89359.160
5053.10058.052
5152.42557.038
5251.77956.017
5351.07154.813
5450.45353.653
5549.80752.466
5649.19951.014
5748.49350.150
5847.85549.273
5947.33048.304
6046.79347.024
6146.04445.737
6245.54544.792
6344.90443.905
6444.09342.810
6543.43341.954
6642.94641.076
6742.18840.253
6841.39939.175
6940.60838.063
7039.95737.259
7139.07136.157
7238.38335.272
7337.73734.231
7436.93533.298
7536.25532.263
7635.31431.337
7734.66030.327
7833.85129.394
7933.24628.500
8032.20527.331
8131.46526.233
8230.69725.192
8329.97424.015
8429.08623.033
8528.29722.186
8627.53421.053
8726.55019.893
8825.60718.968
8924.68917.869
9023.70816.662
9122.63115.552
9221.45614.265
9320.13512.923
9418.93711.337
9517.51910.234
9615.8609.004
9714.2717.290
9812.3675.897
999.2174.381


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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