Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10145.753173.821
20116.717130.393
3099.870105.435
4085.80785.084
5074.82569.817
6064.68955.927
7054.56545.024
8044.07234.855
9031.53524.211

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1236.793299.596
2205.706258.182
3191.188242.161
4181.706229.108
5171.223219.518
6165.810206.300
7159.731197.097
8152.723188.564
9148.919180.119
10145.753173.821
11141.627168.624
12138.204162.918
13135.213158.612
14132.676154.316
15129.297149.616
16126.855145.903
17124.371141.588
18121.548137.217
19119.243133.392
20116.717130.393
21114.451127.509
22112.378124.314
23110.783122.090
24109.361118.864
25107.618116.853
26105.975115.127
27104.747112.510
28103.147110.443
29101.489108.052
3099.870105.435
3198.312103.056
3297.043100.654
3395.61098.768
3494.22996.918
3592.77094.394
3691.43892.390
3789.86990.402
3888.67388.559
3987.21287.053
4085.80785.084
4184.44183.193
4283.17781.800
4382.00180.631
4480.68179.034
4579.53677.605
4678.76776.015
4777.88674.581
4876.87172.720
4975.83271.321
5074.82569.817
5173.74468.460
5272.43067.110
5371.47065.541
5470.54264.050
5569.53162.547
5668.45260.738
5767.46159.677
5866.63258.610
5965.59057.445
6064.68955.927
6163.55554.423
6262.76353.332
6361.63252.319
6460.69251.083
6559.63850.127
6658.78149.154
6757.60448.250
6856.59547.078
6955.61545.881
7054.56545.024
7153.39243.859
7252.53542.931
7351.74241.848
7450.51440.886
7549.51339.824
7648.52538.881
7747.44037.858
7846.47636.919
7945.26936.023
8044.07234.855
8142.94233.764
8242.05832.731
8340.74631.564
8439.57030.591
8538.43329.752
8637.18228.626
8735.60627.471
8834.28226.545
8932.60125.437
9031.53524.211
9130.15423.070
9228.54821.729
9327.09420.303
9424.94918.571
9522.88817.331
9620.74115.904
9717.50813.815
9814.54212.003
9911.0119.864


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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