Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright



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Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright ( Jan  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.60421.124
209.71816.461
308.43613.853
407.42911.695
506.64810.015
605.9508.399
705.2387.034
804.4865.643
903.4433.993

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
118.08437.274
216.02131.406
314.71129.292
414.03827.630
513.37926.442
612.82824.848
712.45423.767
812.09722.784
911.86021.827
1011.60421.124
1111.28620.551
1211.07019.927
1310.83219.459
1410.59718.996
1510.40518.493
1610.27818.097
1710.14317.640
1810.01017.178
199.87416.776
209.71816.461
219.55216.159
229.42715.825
239.30515.593
249.12515.256
259.01315.046
268.87214.866
278.77014.593
288.66714.377
298.56414.127
308.43613.853
318.32813.603
328.20813.351
338.11213.152
348.00512.957
357.92312.690
367.80712.477
377.72012.266
387.63212.069
397.53611.907
407.42911.695
417.32611.491
427.24811.340
437.17111.213
447.09611.039
457.01610.882
466.94310.707
476.88710.548
486.80810.341
496.72610.185
506.64810.015
516.5759.862
526.5089.708
536.4539.529
546.3899.357
556.3209.183
566.2428.971
576.1748.846
586.1048.720
596.0238.581
605.9508.399
615.8798.216
625.8018.083
635.7347.959
645.6517.805
655.5847.686
665.5227.564
675.4437.449
685.3737.299
695.3067.145
705.2387.034
715.1766.881
725.1076.759
735.0306.614
744.9446.485
754.8606.340
764.7896.211
774.7096.069
784.6255.937
794.5555.811
804.4865.643
814.3875.485
824.2925.333
834.1895.159
844.1065.012
854.0004.884
863.8854.709
873.7924.527
883.6764.378
893.5604.197
903.4433.993
913.3263.799
923.1933.566
933.0653.311
942.9442.990
952.7542.752
962.6112.469
972.3962.033
982.1431.630
991.6621.117


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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