Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright



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Exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright ( Jan 2011 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1042.51021.124
2037.06716.461
3033.80813.853
4031.07711.695
5028.54910.015
6026.4058.399
7023.8917.034
8021.3995.643
9018.1433.993

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
159.72737.274
253.90031.406
351.40029.292
449.23827.630
547.88026.442
646.68424.848
745.32423.767
844.15122.784
943.26521.827
1042.51021.124
1141.83820.551
1240.99319.927
1340.42819.459
1439.85618.996
1539.35018.493
1638.89118.097
1738.42417.640
1837.87917.178
1937.43416.776
2037.06716.461
2136.72416.159
2236.35915.825
2336.03415.593
2435.68515.256
2535.36415.046
2634.94914.866
2734.65214.593
2834.39814.377
2934.12914.127
3033.80813.853
3133.59713.603
3233.35313.351
3333.04913.152
3432.73812.957
3532.46712.690
3632.21212.477
3731.91912.266
3831.68812.069
3931.38211.907
4031.07711.695
4130.77211.491
4230.50411.340
4330.25411.213
4430.00211.039
4529.79910.882
4629.51210.707
4729.24310.548
4829.00210.341
4928.77210.185
5028.54910.015
5128.3369.862
5228.1499.708
5327.9309.529
5427.6959.357
5527.5249.183
5627.2658.971
5727.0578.846
5826.8458.720
5926.6328.581
6026.4058.399
6126.2168.216
6225.9628.083
6325.7477.959
6425.4927.805
6525.2697.686
6625.0177.564
6724.7537.449
6824.5257.299
6924.2317.145
7023.8917.034
7123.7406.881
7223.4736.759
7323.1916.614
7422.9876.485
7522.7246.340
7622.4786.211
7722.2266.069
7822.0285.937
7921.7495.811
8021.3995.643
8121.1515.485
8220.8965.333
8320.5555.159
8420.2705.012
8520.0254.884
8619.6534.709
8719.3174.527
8818.9614.378
8918.5594.197
9018.1433.993
9117.7493.799
9217.2333.566
9316.6713.311
9416.1612.990
9515.5752.752
9614.8992.469
9714.1192.033
9813.0821.630
9911.7291.117


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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