Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Probability distribution for Ovens River at Bright( Apr 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile12.266
Median20.535
Mean27.829
75% Quartile34.489
Interquartile Range22.222

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1133.937
2101.129
390.557
482.682
577.282
670.328
765.795
861.802
958.035
1055.337
1153.180
1250.879
1349.187
1447.537
1545.771
1644.405
1742.848
1841.303
1939.976
2038.952
2137.980
2236.917
2336.185
2435.136
2534.489
2633.938
2733.109
2832.460
2931.716
3030.909
3130.182
3229.453
3328.885
3428.332
3527.582
3626.990
3726.407
3825.869
3925.432
4024.863
4124.318
4223.919
4323.585
4423.130
4522.725
4622.275
4721.871
4821.348
4920.955
5020.535
5120.157
5219.781
5319.345
5418.932
5518.516
5618.016
5717.724
5817.430
5917.109
6016.691
6116.278
6215.978
6315.700
6415.361
6515.098
6614.831
6714.583
6814.261
6913.933
7013.697
7113.377
7213.122
7312.824
7412.559
7512.266
7612.005
7711.723
7811.463
7911.214
8010.890
8110.586
8210.298
839.972
849.699
859.463
869.146
878.819
888.556
898.241
907.890
917.563
927.175
936.760
946.252
955.885
965.459
974.827
984.269
993.598


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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