Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Probability distribution for Ovens River at Bright(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile22.240
Median39.205
Mean53.688
75% Quartile68.668
Interquartile Range46.428

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1242.757
2194.750
3177.335
4163.695
5154.005
6141.126
7132.493
8124.738
9117.298
10111.901
11107.546
12102.864
1399.398
1495.999
1592.346
1689.508
1786.261
1883.028
1980.244
2078.090
2176.042
2273.800
2372.255
2470.038
2568.668
2667.502
2765.747
2864.373
2962.796
3061.086
3159.545
3258.001
3356.799
3455.626
3554.039
3652.788
3751.554
3850.418
3949.494
4048.293
4147.145
4246.304
4345.601
4444.645
4543.792
4642.848
4742.000
4840.904
4940.083
5039.205
5138.415
5237.632
5336.724
5435.865
5535.002
5633.967
5733.361
5832.754
5932.092
6031.232
6130.382
6229.768
6329.198
6428.504
6527.968
6627.423
6726.918
6826.264
6925.598
7025.121
7124.474
7223.959
7323.359
7422.826
7522.239
7621.718
7721.154
7820.635
7920.142
8019.498
8118.898
8218.330
8317.688
8417.154
8516.693
8616.075
8715.440
8814.932
8914.324
9013.650
9113.023
9212.286
9311.501
9410.548
959.864
969.075
977.918
986.910
995.716


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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