Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Probability distribution for Ovens River at Bright(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile54.33239.826
Median81.12569.817
Mean89.94686.681
75% Quartile115.995116.852
Interquartile Range61.66377.026

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1251.175299.596
2217.008258.182
3202.142242.161
4193.171229.108
5182.386219.518
6176.770206.300
7170.458197.097
8163.323188.564
9159.078180.119
10155.811173.821
11151.593168.624
12147.933162.918
13144.564158.612
14141.958154.316
15138.799149.616
16136.125145.903
17133.389141.588
18130.252137.217
19128.097133.392
20125.526130.393
21123.118127.509
22120.825124.314
23119.275122.090
24117.707118.864
25116.012116.853
26114.098115.127
27112.540112.510
28111.067110.443
29109.536108.052
30107.691105.435
31106.242103.056
32104.637100.654
33103.01798.768
34101.92196.918
35100.21494.394
3698.71392.390
3797.02590.402
3895.75388.559
3994.33987.053
4092.87285.084
4191.29783.193
4290.27681.800
4388.54980.631
4487.52379.034
4586.37277.605
4685.38676.015
4784.45774.581
4883.50872.720
4982.25271.321
5081.12569.817
5179.95968.460
5278.78067.110
5377.69565.541
5476.57164.050
5575.62162.547
5674.39560.738
5773.48359.677
5872.48658.610
5971.46657.445
6070.51255.927
6169.48554.423
6268.69653.332
6367.39752.319
6466.18551.083
6565.18750.127
6664.09549.154
6763.09848.250
6861.82147.078
6960.70545.881
7059.67345.024
7158.48943.859
7257.58442.931
7356.66641.848
7455.35040.886
7554.30939.824
7653.33538.881
7752.04537.858
7850.96636.919
7949.83836.023
8048.57334.855
8147.37033.764
8246.27632.731
8344.95331.564
8443.78430.591
8542.39429.752
8641.04028.626
8739.60827.471
8838.00626.545
8936.42925.437
9035.12124.211
9133.55323.070
9231.92221.729
9330.28420.303
9427.83318.571
9525.81017.331
9623.64515.904
9720.10313.815
9816.98912.003
9913.3779.864


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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