Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Probability distribution for Ovens River at Bright(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile101.96962.536
Median140.234106.863
Mean144.294114.204
75% Quartile182.694156.939
Interquartile Range80.72594.403

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1293.680292.070
2274.308263.998
3260.306252.970
4249.746243.887
5241.611237.145
6235.845227.737
7231.420221.091
8227.501214.848
9223.495208.579
10219.387203.837
11215.737199.878
12212.717195.476
13210.141192.112
14207.548188.718
15204.339184.957
16201.743181.948
17199.924178.406
18197.694174.764
19195.522171.528
20193.289168.959
21191.329166.458
22189.140163.652
23186.840161.676
24184.945158.773
25182.762156.940
26180.834155.353
27178.752152.920
28176.859150.975
29175.313148.697
30173.376146.169
31171.547143.837
32169.892141.449
33168.028139.549
34166.279137.663
35164.302135.053
36162.674132.948
37161.273130.830
38159.135128.840
39157.483127.194
40155.678125.014
41154.068122.888
42152.595121.301
43151.238119.957
44149.489118.098
45147.956116.415
46146.267114.517
47144.888112.783
48143.456110.501
49141.679108.759
50140.234106.863
51138.982105.129
52137.579103.381
53136.478101.321
54135.04799.335
55133.43597.303
56132.07494.819
57130.58693.340
58129.14891.836
59127.73490.177
60126.44687.983
61124.80785.777
62123.29284.156
63121.81682.634
64120.32180.755
65118.73279.284
66117.17577.774
67115.97876.357
68113.89674.500
69112.14672.582
70110.85771.196
71109.34069.291
72107.26967.759
73105.76865.954
74103.99364.334
75101.96362.533
76100.45560.918
7798.86559.154
7896.59557.519
7995.21855.951
8093.22253.892
8191.88351.953
8289.91750.107
8388.13248.010
8486.32446.254
8584.03044.733
8681.06942.687
8778.76540.584
8876.33138.895
8973.74836.877
9070.96034.646
9168.04032.578
9265.18530.157
9362.62527.608
9460.05524.553
9556.45122.401
9651.82019.968
9746.94516.515
9842.99613.643
9932.67210.435


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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