Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1955) (GL)
Aug42.09571.8473.21931.551158.228
Aug-Sep80.801102.0246.20662.370241.389
Aug-Oct114.346120.5097.88078.398325.105

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10197.203203.837
20171.261168.959
30151.760146.169
40135.218125.014
50120.926106.863
60107.18587.983
7092.85271.196
8077.03753.892
9057.50234.646

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1274.626292.070
2249.048263.998
3236.710252.970
4227.774243.887
5220.154237.145
6214.541227.737
7209.685221.091
8205.467214.848
9201.104208.579
10197.203203.837
11194.051199.878
12191.474195.476
13188.073192.112
14185.203188.718
15182.010184.957
16179.513181.948
17177.294178.406
18174.759174.764
19172.789171.528
20171.261168.959
21169.540166.458
22166.885163.652
23165.195161.676
24163.227158.773
25161.240156.940
26159.515155.353
27157.636152.920
28155.861150.975
29153.981148.697
30151.760146.169
31149.990143.837
32148.398141.449
33146.468139.549
34144.635137.663
35143.121135.053
36141.512132.948
37139.979130.830
38138.468128.840
39137.052127.194
40135.218125.014
41133.631122.888
42131.988121.301
43130.425119.957
44128.848118.098
45127.880116.415
46126.773114.517
47125.332112.783
48123.950110.501
49122.208108.759
50120.926106.863
51119.682105.129
52118.317103.381
53116.782101.321
54115.24299.335
55113.77597.303
56112.33494.819
57111.14693.340
58109.79991.836
59108.45890.177
60107.18587.983
61105.73885.777
62104.32784.156
63103.02382.634
64101.83580.755
65100.56079.284
6698.99777.774
6797.62176.357
6895.96174.500
6994.38472.582
7092.85271.196
7191.18569.291
7289.50267.759
7387.97365.954
7486.50664.334
7584.94062.533
7683.30360.918
7781.80959.154
7879.96257.519
7978.49355.951
8077.03753.892
8175.39851.953
8273.84250.107
8372.34148.010
8470.55746.254
8568.12944.733
8666.35942.687
8763.85240.584
8861.75138.895
8959.80336.877
9057.50234.646
9155.57032.578
9253.69830.157
9350.81927.608
9448.07024.553
9544.96522.401
9641.50019.968
9737.32116.515
9832.97913.643
9927.54310.435


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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