Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1955) (GL)
Jul30.28837.8913.33121.79252.506
Jul-Aug72.382109.7386.55053.343210.734
Jul-Sep111.089139.9149.53784.162293.895

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10216.837202.681
20179.570164.211
30155.521139.568
40135.870117.287
50118.80298.826
60105.57180.453
7091.91064.915
8077.05049.646
9058.85233.227

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1337.558301.472
2300.788269.945
3276.312257.574
4263.150247.394
5252.674239.845
6243.072229.322
7235.504221.899
8227.730214.935
9221.267207.954
10216.837202.681
11209.642198.284
12205.137193.402
13201.405189.678
14197.568185.925
15194.543181.774
16191.359178.458
17187.984174.562
18184.480170.564
19181.806167.020
20179.570164.211
21176.758161.482
22174.072158.427
23171.379156.279
24168.597153.132
25165.934151.148
26163.939149.434
27161.753146.811
28159.517144.718
29157.558142.273
30155.521139.568
31153.257137.079
32151.995134.538
33149.872132.521
34147.833130.525
35145.505127.772
36143.451125.560
37141.377123.341
38139.332121.263
39137.703119.549
40135.870117.287
41134.090115.089
42132.645113.455
43131.232112.074
44128.741110.171
45126.890108.454
46125.478106.525
47123.981104.770
48122.374102.469
49120.239100.721
50118.80298.826
51117.53597.101
52116.19895.370
53114.98593.338
54113.70591.390
55112.46889.408
56111.21786.998
57109.83585.571
58108.50184.127
59106.92682.539
60105.57180.453
61104.43978.367
62103.18576.843
63101.81075.418
64100.14273.668
6598.85672.305
6697.19670.912
6795.98469.611
6894.79167.913
6993.50766.169
7091.91064.915
7190.47663.199
7289.01261.826
7387.46760.216
7486.07758.778
7584.41257.186
7682.77155.765
7781.66354.219
7880.10252.793
7978.63651.429
8077.05049.646
8175.47547.974
8273.51046.387
8371.81944.591
8470.02843.091
8568.44241.795
8666.62440.055
8764.87038.268
8862.77036.834
8961.02835.122
9058.85233.227
9156.72931.468
9253.75729.404
9351.67327.221
9449.02424.584
9545.88522.711
9641.72320.571
9738.48317.481
9832.94614.851
9926.71711.820


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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