Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1955) (GL)
Sep38.70730.1762.98730.82083.161
Sep-Oct72.25148.6624.66146.847166.877
Sep-Nov89.96557.6745.61361.245212.167

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10124.061160.273
20105.297133.584
3091.914116.091
4080.93999.772
5071.08885.666
6062.87570.829
7053.53357.433
8043.86443.372
9032.71827.466

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1174.266227.651
2160.121206.222
3152.377197.803
4145.285190.868
5140.107185.719
6135.983178.534
7132.823173.457
8129.523168.687
9126.178163.897
10124.061160.273
11121.687157.247
12119.249153.881
13117.198151.308
14114.469148.712
15112.578145.835
16110.941143.532
17109.264140.820
18108.021138.031
19106.559135.553
20105.297133.584
21103.889131.667
22102.565129.516
23101.404128.000
2499.527125.773
2598.412124.366
2697.120123.148
2796.003121.280
2894.750119.785
2993.199118.034
3091.914116.091
3190.753114.296
3289.479112.458
3388.101110.994
3486.920109.541
3586.000107.528
3684.985105.904
3783.890104.269
3882.870102.731
3981.949101.459
4080.93999.772
4180.03898.126
4279.33596.896
4378.18095.854
4477.07494.412
4575.80193.105
4674.60591.630
4773.72290.281
4872.86788.504
4971.95887.146
5071.08885.666
5170.16684.311
5269.45982.944
5368.52881.331
5467.74779.774
5567.10778.179
5666.12876.225
5765.26575.060
5864.30573.875
5963.59872.564
6062.87570.829
6161.86769.081
6261.23667.794
6360.41066.585
6459.47765.088
6558.63163.915
6657.47262.709
6756.37961.576
6855.31560.088
6954.34558.548
7053.53357.433
7152.83755.898
7252.07554.662
7350.94653.202
7449.86251.890
7548.90350.427
7648.06549.114
7747.12847.676
7846.07746.342
7945.15045.059
8043.86443.372
8142.99441.780
8241.92740.261
8340.99738.533
8439.83337.084
8538.78035.827
8637.44634.134
8736.38832.391
8835.25730.992
8933.96729.317
9032.71827.466
9131.76325.749
9230.19723.743
9328.88221.632
9427.19119.109
9525.70517.339
9623.24715.347
9721.05112.540
9817.82610.230
9914.9997.685


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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