Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1955) (GL)
Oct34.08413.85015.1441.67416.31183.716
Oct-Nov52.08626.69123.6932.62630.582129.006
Oct-Dec62.99740.04029.2492.98942.474142.840

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1078.874114.527
2066.63294.257
3057.35280.991
4050.07668.654
5043.60558.052
6037.71147.024
7031.32837.259
8025.01627.331
9017.64016.662

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1112.853165.735
2102.164149.448
397.206143.049
492.400137.778
589.206133.865
686.979128.403
785.100124.546
882.774120.921
980.783117.281
1078.874114.527
1177.450112.227
1275.963109.670
1374.598107.716
1473.294105.744
1572.004103.559
1670.993101.810
1769.88399.751
1868.66497.633
1967.64295.752
2066.63294.257
2165.70192.802
2264.49791.170
2363.52090.020
2462.70788.330
2561.86587.264
2660.91386.340
2760.05884.923
2859.04183.790
2958.23282.463
3057.35280.991
3156.40879.632
3255.81778.240
3355.02877.133
3454.29376.033
3553.50674.511
3652.84173.283
3752.07872.048
3851.50570.887
3950.90769.926
4050.07668.654
4149.35967.413
4248.63366.486
4348.03765.701
4447.47264.616
4546.75963.633
4646.17662.524
4745.62061.511
4844.97560.178
4944.32759.160
5043.60558.052
5142.88857.038
5242.37156.017
5341.84954.813
5441.27553.653
5540.64652.466
5639.94851.014
5739.48450.150
5839.03549.273
5938.36048.304
6037.71147.024
6137.08745.737
6236.44544.792
6335.73643.905
6435.19942.810
6534.57241.954
6633.99041.076
6733.29240.253
6832.80539.175
6932.19338.063
7031.32837.259
7130.80036.157
7230.23435.272
7329.54234.231
7428.89733.298
7528.42632.263
7627.73131.337
7727.03830.327
7826.40029.394
7925.77628.500
8025.01627.331
8124.33426.233
8223.60325.192
8322.98124.015
8422.30323.033
8521.53822.186
8620.67321.053
8719.92919.893
8819.14918.968
8918.40817.869
9017.64016.662
9116.84015.552
9215.91514.265
9315.06112.923
9413.81811.337
9512.72910.234
9611.5489.004
9710.1467.290
988.4035.897
996.2474.381


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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