Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov18.00212.8418.5490.95214.27245.830
Nov-Dec28.91326.19014.1051.31526.16497.154
Nov-Jan34.54832.72016.6711.61331.347112.864

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1037.04665.478
2029.72650.726
3025.28642.087
4021.93634.830
5019.07629.175
6016.63323.794
7014.08419.349
8011.51414.959
908.58310.006

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
159.676108.500
252.68394.199
348.45588.704
445.73184.244
543.78080.975
641.79076.482
740.40573.359
839.21970.468
938.26867.609
1037.04665.478
1136.10863.719
1235.49261.788
1334.44960.329
1433.64058.873
1532.90357.278
1632.21356.017
1731.50754.549
1830.91553.059
1930.31651.753
2029.72650.726
2129.29749.738
2228.75048.640
2328.30747.874
2427.86846.761
2527.40146.065
2626.94945.467
2726.53644.558
2826.12343.838
2925.72643.004
3025.28642.087
3124.91841.251
3224.64840.404
3324.31339.737
3423.91439.081
3523.60038.182
3623.29837.466
3722.90536.752
3822.61836.088
3922.19335.544
4021.93634.830
4121.64034.141
4221.23233.632
4320.96733.203
4420.72032.615
4520.46332.088
4620.19231.498
4719.86530.964
4819.63430.268
4919.39429.743
5019.07629.175
5118.83728.661
5218.60628.147
5318.36327.547
5418.11526.973
5517.85826.392
5617.65125.689
5717.33425.274
5817.12824.855
5916.88824.396
6016.63323.794
6116.34023.194
6216.15022.757
6315.88222.349
6415.59921.848
6515.33421.458
6615.10021.060
6714.85720.689
6814.56720.205
6914.30319.707
7014.08419.349
7113.84118.860
7213.60218.467
7313.32818.007
7413.11517.595
7512.86917.139
7612.59416.731
7712.32116.285
7812.00915.873
7911.75315.478
8011.51414.959
8111.26514.471
8211.00714.004
8310.72913.474
8410.44913.027
8510.15212.639
869.84412.115
879.50211.571
889.20911.131
898.85010.600
908.58310.006
918.2009.446
927.8138.779
937.4738.059
946.9937.168
956.5366.518
965.9635.755
975.3974.608
984.9033.580
993.4912.317


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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