Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Feb3.9194.6662.0680.1686.2968.758
Feb-Mar7.30321.0437.4311.01311.29617.263
Feb-Apr12.60629.07212.0522.12114.845111.853

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.76820.182
208.79414.710
307.57611.943
406.6749.817
505.8898.263
605.1876.856
704.5875.738
803.8454.666
903.0303.491

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
117.99844.753
215.60034.744
314.31531.454
413.44028.979
512.69627.268
612.17925.047
711.76623.588
811.33622.295
911.03721.067
1010.76820.182
1110.51619.472
1210.28818.712
1310.07818.150
149.88017.601
159.68917.011
169.48716.553
179.31716.029
189.13815.507
198.95915.058
208.79414.710
218.63714.379
228.50614.016
238.36013.765
248.26813.405
258.14013.183
268.01112.993
277.90512.707
287.81212.482
297.68612.224
307.57611.943
317.46111.690
327.35611.435
337.26011.237
347.17911.042
357.09110.779
366.99110.570
376.90510.364
386.83910.174
396.75110.019
406.6749.817
416.5949.623
426.4909.480
436.4009.361
446.3149.198
456.2259.053
466.1468.891
476.0858.746
486.0238.557
495.9588.415
505.8898.263
515.8278.126
525.7647.989
535.6957.831
545.6307.680
555.5547.528
565.4907.344
575.4097.237
585.3347.129
595.2577.010
605.1876.856
615.1286.703
625.0606.592
635.0056.488
644.9526.362
654.8906.264
664.8286.164
674.7736.071
684.7125.950
694.6425.826
704.5875.738
714.5175.617
724.4445.520
734.3455.407
744.2795.306
754.1985.194
764.1245.095
774.0634.987
783.9934.887
793.9264.791
803.8454.666
813.7724.549
823.6904.437
833.6144.310
843.5474.204
853.4744.112
863.3943.988
873.3013.859
883.2143.755
893.1163.630
903.0303.491
912.9343.360
922.8083.204
932.6663.037
942.5372.831
952.4402.680
962.2482.505
972.0722.242
981.7982.007
991.5101.720


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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