Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1955) (GL)
Sep38.84230.62430.1762.98732.22783.161
Sep-Oct72.62645.76848.6624.66149.207166.877
Sep-Nov90.47854.31757.6745.61363.984212.167

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10175.054160.273
20155.697133.584
30140.571116.091
40128.04399.772
50116.54285.666
60105.98970.829
7094.33557.433
8080.97643.372
9064.17127.466

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1231.949227.651
2214.923206.222
3205.477197.803
4197.714190.868
5193.010185.719
6188.951178.534
7184.159173.457
8181.054168.687
9177.806163.897
10175.054160.273
11172.707157.247
12170.016153.881
13167.899151.308
14165.474148.712
15163.428145.835
16161.646143.532
17160.516140.820
18158.848138.031
19157.096135.553
20155.697133.584
21154.520131.667
22152.823129.516
23151.560128.000
24150.054125.773
25148.482124.366
26146.672123.148
27145.212121.280
28144.023119.785
29142.354118.034
30140.571116.091
31139.542114.296
32138.262112.458
33136.995110.994
34135.593109.541
35134.253107.528
36132.988105.904
37131.749104.269
38130.533102.731
39129.371101.459
40128.04399.772
41126.68798.126
42125.58296.896
43124.42495.854
44123.44994.412
45122.20493.105
46121.09291.630
47120.11290.281
48119.22488.504
49117.88687.146
50116.54285.666
51115.68984.311
52114.55182.944
53113.34981.331
54112.42479.774
55111.19178.179
56110.10376.225
57109.05575.060
58108.24673.875
59107.08772.564
60105.98970.829
61104.98669.081
62104.10667.794
63103.20466.585
64101.87765.088
65100.77563.915
6699.54362.709
6798.19461.576
6896.89360.088
6995.50558.548
7094.33557.433
7192.93855.898
7291.74454.662
7390.68753.202
7489.31951.890
7588.20350.427
7686.65849.114
7785.51747.676
7883.88046.342
7982.52745.059
8080.97643.372
8179.60041.780
8277.80540.261
8376.31738.533
8474.50737.084
8572.77835.827
8671.08534.134
8769.53632.391
8868.04030.992
8966.19729.317
9064.17127.466
9162.23925.749
9259.56823.743
9356.87221.632
9454.28019.109
9551.25317.339
9647.83915.347
9743.90912.540
9839.94710.230
9933.0787.685


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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