Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov17.8528.5499.0120.95214.77745.830
Nov-Dec28.67814.10515.9171.31527.03297.154
Nov-Jan34.26416.67119.3691.61332.390112.864

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1046.66565.478
2038.32850.726
3032.93442.087
4028.37834.830
5025.05429.175
6021.83423.794
7018.87819.349
8015.55614.959
9011.85310.006

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
172.492108.500
266.03594.199
360.42688.704
456.78284.244
554.71580.975
652.24576.482
750.79073.359
849.26070.468
947.66967.609
1046.66565.478
1145.77763.719
1244.68761.788
1343.69660.329
1442.70258.873
1541.78057.278
1640.84456.017
1740.18154.549
1839.56753.059
1939.01651.753
2038.32850.726
2137.63049.738
2236.96048.640
2336.36547.874
2435.73146.761
2535.17846.065
2634.77945.467
2734.43144.558
2833.87543.838
2933.38143.004
3032.93442.087
3132.35741.251
3231.92840.404
3331.43839.737
3431.06739.081
3530.62738.182
3630.15637.466
3729.73436.752
3829.28436.088
3928.79335.544
4028.37834.830
4127.94834.141
4227.58933.632
4327.21833.203
4426.83432.615
4526.57132.088
4626.25531.498
4725.91430.964
4825.66830.268
4925.37729.743
5025.05429.175
5124.71828.661
5224.34928.147
5324.01327.547
5423.64826.973
5523.32926.392
5623.04325.689
5722.74425.274
5822.44424.855
5922.20724.396
6021.83423.794
6121.62823.194
6221.29822.757
6320.95922.349
6420.70921.848
6520.40221.458
6620.04321.060
6719.72520.689
6819.43620.205
6919.09219.707
7018.87819.349
7118.62118.860
7218.29518.467
7317.91118.007
7417.59217.595
7517.23617.139
7616.86716.731
7716.52916.285
7816.11815.873
7915.82215.478
8015.55614.959
8115.27014.471
8214.92414.004
8314.57713.474
8414.20313.027
8513.82212.639
8613.47112.115
8713.10411.571
8812.68411.131
8912.29710.600
9011.85310.006
9111.3089.446
9210.9028.779
9310.4488.059
949.9037.168
959.1946.518
968.4955.755
977.8784.608
987.0273.580
995.6332.317


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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