Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Product list for Ovens River at Bright


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Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec10.8265.5566.9050.36312.25551.324
Dec-Jan16.4128.12110.3570.66117.61367.034
Dec-Feb20.30310.18912.0430.82924.052106.961

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1022.14138.627
2018.25228.677
3015.77223.434
4013.70819.274
5012.06916.147
6010.65713.234
709.36510.852
807.8658.502
906.1005.822

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
138.18479.339
232.29563.332
329.93557.922
427.76653.793
526.58050.907
625.28247.119
724.44744.602
823.59942.349
922.71940.192
1022.14138.627
1121.64937.362
1221.12536.000
1320.73734.989
1420.30333.994
1519.83732.921
1619.41132.083
1719.09731.122
1818.81630.159
1918.47129.325
2018.25228.677
2117.90628.058
2217.69327.377
2317.45026.906
2417.16426.226
2516.92425.804
2616.61025.443
2716.37824.898
2816.14524.469
2915.95023.974
3015.77223.434
3115.54522.945
3215.29122.452
3315.10322.066
3414.89321.687
3514.67821.172
3614.50820.763
3714.30820.358
3814.08819.982
3913.88019.675
4013.70819.274
4113.54618.889
4213.37218.604
4313.18518.366
4413.01618.040
4512.88817.747
4612.72117.422
4712.53717.128
4812.38816.745
4912.24316.457
5012.06916.147
5111.94815.866
5211.80915.587
5311.65915.260
5411.50514.949
5511.37214.635
5611.24014.255
5711.07714.031
5810.95913.805
5910.83513.558
6010.65713.234
6110.50512.912
6210.38412.677
6310.25912.458
6410.11812.190
6510.01411.981
669.89211.768
679.76111.569
689.65511.310
699.51211.044
709.36510.852
719.23610.591
729.07010.381
738.93210.135
748.7889.914
758.6499.670
768.5139.451
778.3619.213
788.1458.992
798.0008.780
807.8658.502
817.7308.239
827.5617.989
837.4077.703
847.2177.462
857.0437.253
866.8646.969
876.6626.675
886.5036.436
896.3176.147
906.1005.822
915.8945.516
925.6935.149
935.4524.752
945.1664.257
954.9183.893
964.6213.464
974.1242.812
983.6232.220
992.9371.482


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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