Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Feb3.8902.0681.6860.1686.4398.758
Feb-Mar7.3057.4313.7161.01311.90017.263
Feb-Apr12.59712.0526.7712.12115.769111.853

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1012.79020.182
2010.49714.710
309.06311.943
407.9819.817
507.0758.263
606.2306.856
705.5255.738
804.6574.666
903.7033.491

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.33844.753
218.72634.744
316.99031.454
415.86028.979
515.07627.268
614.43125.047
713.92623.588
813.46022.295
913.12221.067
1012.79020.182
1112.53119.472
1212.23718.712
1311.96418.150
1411.72417.601
1511.55817.011
1611.28516.553
1711.07916.029
1810.89015.507
1910.68215.058
2010.49714.710
2110.31514.379
2210.15514.016
239.97713.765
249.85013.405
259.71913.183
269.56412.993
279.44512.707
289.32012.482
299.19712.224
309.06311.943
318.94011.690
328.80811.435
338.69611.237
348.58411.042
358.47810.779
368.37210.570
378.26910.364
388.16610.174
398.06710.019
407.9819.817
417.8919.623
427.7939.480
437.6859.361
447.5699.198
457.4709.053
467.3798.891
477.3048.746
487.2098.557
497.1318.415
507.0758.263
517.0018.126
526.9147.989
536.8297.831
546.7527.680
556.6837.528
566.5927.344
576.5037.237
586.4147.129
596.3117.010
606.2306.856
616.1626.703
626.0956.592
636.0236.488
645.9596.362
655.8996.264
665.8406.164
675.7586.071
685.6735.950
695.6065.826
705.5255.738
715.4575.617
725.3535.520
735.2545.407
745.1635.306
755.0815.194
765.0055.095
774.9184.987
784.8354.887
794.7474.791
804.6574.666
814.5744.549
824.4834.437
834.4004.310
844.3024.204
854.2164.112
864.1283.988
874.0193.859
883.8953.755
893.8073.630
903.7033.491
913.5713.360
923.4583.204
933.3063.037
943.1402.831
953.0102.680
962.7712.505
972.5762.242
982.2602.007
991.9361.720


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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