Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1998) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Mar3.4155.3632.0300.3655.4618.505
Mar-Apr8.7079.9845.0851.5879.330103.095
Mar-May17.60617.26910.9723.14214.026167.950

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1029.463
2021.369
3017.294
4014.171
5011.897
609.842
708.214
806.659
904.959

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
166.148
251.152
346.236
442.544
539.994
636.689
734.519
832.598
930.775
1029.463
1128.411
1227.284
1326.453
1425.640
1524.767
1624.090
1723.316
1822.546
1921.882
2021.369
2120.880
2220.345
2319.976
2419.445
2519.117
2618.838
2718.417
2818.086
2917.706
3017.294
3116.921
3216.547
3316.255
3415.970
3515.583
3615.277
3714.974
3814.695
3914.467
4014.171
4113.887
4213.678
4313.503
4413.265
4513.052
4612.816
4712.602
4812.326
4912.119
5011.897
5111.696
5211.496
5311.264
5411.044
5510.822
5610.554
5710.397
5810.239
5910.067
609.842
619.619
629.457
639.306
649.122
658.979
668.834
678.698
688.523
698.343
708.214
718.038
727.897
737.733
747.587
757.425
767.280
777.123
786.978
796.840
806.659
816.489
826.327
836.143
845.989
855.856
865.676
875.490
885.340
895.160
904.959
914.770
924.546
934.305
944.008
953.792
963.540
973.163
982.827
992.417


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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