Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright ( Jan 2009 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jan5.5034.4822.4420.2983.89118.172
Jan-Feb8.8727.0163.4470.4666.41026.930
Jan-Mar11.8068.5784.6151.3118.26435.435

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.10221.124
2011.04816.461
309.63313.853
408.49911.695
507.63610.015
606.8588.399
706.0807.034
805.2255.643
904.0533.993

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
119.93837.274
217.90831.406
316.49129.292
415.74227.630
515.06526.442
614.51624.848
714.07523.767
813.66922.784
913.40621.827
1013.10221.124
1112.79420.551
1212.50819.927
1312.28319.459
1412.00918.996
1511.81418.493
1611.66718.097
1711.51917.640
1811.34717.178
1911.21516.776
2011.04816.461
2110.85816.159
2210.71215.825
2310.56415.593
2410.40315.256
2510.26615.046
2610.10614.866
279.97214.593
289.86214.377
299.76414.127
309.63313.853
319.48213.603
329.37913.351
339.25813.152
349.14012.957
359.03212.690
368.94312.477
378.84012.266
388.72312.069
398.61911.907
408.49911.695
418.39711.491
428.31811.340
438.22411.213
448.13711.039
458.05710.882
467.97910.707
477.90810.548
487.81710.341
497.73610.185
507.63610.015
517.5599.862
527.4919.708
537.4349.529
547.3509.357
557.2629.183
567.1928.971
577.1158.846
587.0268.720
596.9398.581
606.8588.399
616.7808.216
626.7028.083
636.6247.959
646.5397.805
656.4477.686
666.3887.564
676.3107.449
686.2187.299
696.1607.145
706.0807.034
716.0076.881
725.9276.759
735.8356.614
745.7406.485
755.6556.340
765.5756.211
775.4786.069
785.3855.937
795.2995.811
805.2255.643
815.1225.485
825.0055.333
834.8845.159
844.7945.012
854.6894.884
864.5724.709
874.4684.527
884.3244.378
894.2064.197
904.0533.993
913.9463.799
923.7943.566
933.6493.311
943.4912.990
953.3062.752
963.1482.469
972.8922.033
982.5831.630
992.0991.117


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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