Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright


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Historical and exceedance probability for Ovens River at Bright ( Jan 2012 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan5.61015.7106.5290.2984.93315.710
Jan-Feb9.51655.63711.1960.46611.04355.637
Jan-Mar12.69173.68627.5721.31114.59773.686

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1021.96721.124
2018.88016.461
3016.76213.853
4015.05811.695
5013.72610.015
6012.4928.399
7011.2007.034
809.7965.643
907.9643.993

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
131.68237.274
228.68831.406
327.01429.292
425.88727.630
524.92526.442
624.10324.848
723.53423.767
823.01722.784
922.44521.827
1021.96721.124
1121.59320.551
1221.19519.927
1320.82619.459
1420.48818.996
1520.17818.493
1619.88518.097
1719.58117.640
1819.38917.178
1919.12216.776
2018.88016.461
2118.61716.159
2218.38015.825
2318.17515.593
2417.95615.256
2517.73915.046
2617.55614.866
2717.34614.593
2817.17914.377
2916.95214.127
3016.76213.853
3116.59913.603
3216.39313.351
3316.21313.152
3416.02812.957
3515.86312.690
3615.70012.477
3715.51512.266
3815.33412.069
3915.20111.907
4015.05811.695
4114.91611.491
4214.80711.340
4314.68311.213
4414.56011.039
4514.42310.882
4614.26010.707
4714.11810.548
4814.00410.341
4913.85510.185
5013.72610.015
5113.6169.862
5213.5089.708
5313.3709.529
5413.2399.357
5513.1379.183
5612.9758.971
5712.8508.846
5812.7278.720
5912.6188.581
6012.4928.399
6112.3518.216
6212.2238.083
6312.0997.959
6411.9797.805
6511.8047.686
6611.6857.564
6711.5727.449
6811.4607.299
6911.3317.145
7011.2007.034
7111.0296.881
7210.9306.759
7310.7836.614
7410.6716.485
7510.5166.340
7610.3476.211
7710.2406.069
7810.0695.937
799.9295.811
809.7965.643
819.6575.485
829.5045.333
839.3395.159
849.1335.012
858.9544.884
868.7734.709
878.5954.527
888.3734.378
898.2044.197
907.9643.993
917.7683.799
927.5493.566
937.3133.311
947.0032.990
956.6612.752
966.3272.469
975.9502.033
985.4411.630
994.7591.117


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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