Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
Skill scores for Ovens River at Bright
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Product list for Ovens River at Bright
About skill scores
- The hindcasts are generated using a leave five out cross validation.
- The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
- The streamflow data for the cross validation is of "archive" quality obtained from the station owners.
- An explanation of the terms skill score , Root Mean Square Error in Probability (RMSEP), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) are provided under the FAQ.
- The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
- Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.
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