Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1033.70647.079
2026.21037.306
3021.54530.919
4017.79325.009
5014.87120.004
6012.27814.972
709.88710.811
807.4127.030
904.9873.614

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
152.95871.763
246.88763.913
343.62160.828
441.32858.288
539.50856.402
637.98553.769
736.50751.909
835.48150.162
934.45548.407
1033.70647.079
1132.85545.970
1231.88044.737
1331.00743.795
1430.20542.844
1529.41741.791
1628.66140.947
1728.02739.954
1827.35238.934
1926.90738.027
2026.21037.306
2125.63736.605
2225.09835.818
2324.62535.264
2424.10934.451
2523.52233.937
2623.12733.492
2722.68632.810
2822.32232.265
2921.95231.627
3021.54530.919
3121.10030.266
3220.71629.597
3320.38829.065
3420.11628.538
3519.76027.808
3619.28427.220
3718.89626.630
3818.53426.075
3918.25125.616
4017.79325.009
4117.50324.419
4217.17723.978
4316.85023.606
4416.52223.091
4516.20222.626
4615.87722.102
4715.54221.625
4815.35220.999
4915.09420.522
5014.87120.004
5114.63319.532
5214.20019.058
5313.97718.501
5413.71117.967
5513.43217.424
5613.17716.763
5712.93416.372
5812.70815.976
5912.47115.542
6012.27814.972
6111.98414.404
6211.76613.991
6311.50213.605
6411.26013.133
6511.06312.767
6610.80712.394
6710.56512.047
6810.30811.597
6910.11211.139
709.88710.811
719.61710.366
729.37910.013
739.1839.602
748.9619.239
758.6698.842
768.4038.491
778.1358.114
787.9497.771
797.7067.447
807.4127.030
817.1756.647
826.9906.289
836.7235.893
846.4695.569
856.2135.295
865.9314.934
875.7384.574
885.4844.292
895.2693.965
904.9873.614
914.7013.300
924.4532.945
934.1312.587
943.7882.179
953.3691.905
962.9531.610
972.5771.216
982.1550.913
991.5820.604


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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