Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1060.52558.807
2051.41547.744
3044.89940.480
4039.24533.691
5034.44227.823
6029.85021.693
7024.86016.292
8019.85510.972
9013.5705.769

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
183.55486.695
276.14777.828
372.33174.344
469.61971.474
567.52669.343
665.49366.368
764.04864.267
862.77362.292
961.50460.308
1060.52558.807
1159.50457.553
1258.39256.159
1357.68155.093
1456.48154.017
1555.54152.825
1654.62151.870
1753.69150.746
1852.97549.589
1952.13948.561
2051.41547.744
2150.78946.949
2249.96246.056
2349.11445.427
2448.38144.502
2547.75943.918
2647.24043.412
2746.67342.636
2845.85442.015
2945.31641.288
3044.89940.480
3144.34639.734
3243.62838.970
3343.05038.361
3442.35037.756
3541.81136.919
3641.25936.243
3740.75735.563
3840.30234.923
3939.81834.393
4039.24533.691
4138.81233.006
4238.30232.495
4337.82332.061
4437.25131.460
4536.70730.917
4636.24130.303
4735.81929.742
4835.31429.003
4934.93628.438
5034.44227.823
5134.05727.261
5233.61826.694
5333.09226.025
5432.65725.380
5532.21224.720
5631.61123.912
5731.12323.432
5830.73822.943
5930.31822.404
6029.85021.693
6129.40520.977
6228.84720.452
6328.27119.960
6427.77219.353
6527.17918.879
6626.70918.393
6726.24017.939
6825.78517.344
6925.31316.732
7024.86016.292
7124.33215.689
7223.90215.206
7323.42514.640
7422.91914.136
7522.29413.579
7621.74313.083
7721.27812.545
7820.71612.051
7920.25311.582
8019.85510.972
8119.30610.405
8218.7329.873
8318.2009.279
8417.4668.789
8516.8888.371
8616.2327.819
8715.5087.263
8814.8326.827
8914.2466.317
9013.5705.769
9113.0035.276
9212.2434.717
9311.1664.153
9410.5973.508
959.6463.076
968.6682.610
977.5911.993
986.4651.522
994.6171.043


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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