Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


Return to catchment list
Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South



Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1031.931
2021.569
3016.265
4012.328
509.607
607.303
705.609
804.122
902.671

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
166.612
254.780
350.272
446.641
544.005
640.420
737.964
835.721
933.536
1031.931
1130.625
1229.209
1328.155
1427.115
1525.993
1625.117
1724.111
1823.107
1922.240
2021.569
2120.930
2220.230
2319.747
2419.055
2518.627
2618.263
2717.716
2817.287
2916.796
3016.265
3115.786
3215.308
3314.936
3414.574
3514.085
3613.701
3713.323
3812.975
3912.694
4012.328
4111.980
4211.726
4311.514
4411.226
4510.970
4610.688
4710.435
4810.109
499.866
509.607
519.375
529.145
538.880
548.631
558.381
568.083
577.909
587.735
597.547
607.303
617.063
626.891
636.731
646.538
656.389
666.239
676.100
685.920
695.738
705.609
715.434
725.296
735.135
744.993
754.837
764.700
774.552
784.417
794.288
804.122
813.969
823.824
833.662
843.527
853.412
863.259
873.103
882.979
892.832
902.671
912.522
922.349
932.168
941.951
951.798
961.624
971.376
981.165
990.925


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence