Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South( Oct 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.2544.673
Median5.74411.750
Mean7.25715.371
75% Quartile9.70822.919
Interquartile Range6.45418.246

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
127.17756.384
223.44949.386
321.20346.638
419.72444.375
518.41042.696
617.52440.354
716.62638.700
815.86437.148
915.24535.591
1014.69634.415
1114.27033.434
1213.68132.344
1313.26231.512
1412.87630.674
1512.53929.747
1612.21829.006
1711.84628.136
1811.48327.243
1911.23526.453
2010.99425.826
2110.73225.218
2210.48424.537
2310.25824.059
249.99723.359
259.70922.919
269.45222.539
279.21721.958
289.04621.495
298.81420.955
308.60720.359
318.44019.812
328.28319.255
338.13118.815
347.96918.380
357.81617.783
367.59217.304
377.46016.827
387.30916.382
397.16616.016
407.05015.536
416.89615.073
426.75214.730
436.60914.441
446.48514.046
456.36513.692
466.23813.296
476.12612.939
486.00812.475
495.89612.125
505.74411.750
515.62911.411
525.49711.074
535.36410.683
545.23510.312
555.1249.940
565.0269.493
574.9279.233
584.8318.971
594.7448.687
604.6388.320
614.5427.958
624.4337.698
634.3327.458
644.2447.168
654.1686.945
664.0746.720
673.9586.512
683.8666.246
693.7905.977
703.6885.787
713.6065.531
723.5345.329
733.4345.097
743.3554.894
753.2534.672
763.1664.478
773.0894.271
782.9764.084
792.8733.908
802.7743.683
812.6663.476
822.5423.285
832.4513.073
842.3762.901
852.2802.755
862.1982.564
872.0852.373
881.9712.224
891.8782.050
901.7881.863
911.6711.696
921.5701.506
931.4631.313
941.3541.092
951.2400.942
961.1140.779
970.9120.558
980.7190.385
990.4930.203


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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