Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.8812.380
Median3.1895.516
Mean3.9388.483
75% Quartile5.18911.549
Interquartile Range3.3089.168

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114.69541.416
212.41834.341
311.21031.616
410.24629.404
59.69527.787
69.22225.572
78.74124.042
88.34422.634
97.99221.253
107.64920.232
117.44019.397
127.17318.488
136.93017.807
146.77217.134
156.58616.404
166.43315.833
176.26415.175
186.08414.515
195.92713.944
205.82413.501
215.67313.078
225.56712.614
235.43912.294
245.30911.833
255.19111.549
265.09011.306
274.98710.941
284.86810.655
294.76010.327
304.6609.971
314.5439.651
324.4559.331
334.3749.082
344.2718.839
354.1908.512
364.1228.254
374.0368.001
383.9637.768
393.8887.579
403.8157.335
413.7457.102
423.6986.931
433.6506.790
443.5896.597
453.5096.426
463.4446.237
473.3746.068
483.3225.851
493.2575.689
503.1895.516
513.1145.362
523.0635.209
533.0055.033
542.9464.867
552.8914.701
562.8384.504
572.7934.389
582.7414.274
592.6904.150
602.6413.989
612.5993.831
622.5433.718
632.4913.613
642.4413.486
652.3973.389
662.3553.291
672.2953.200
682.2363.083
692.1982.964
702.1392.880
712.0852.766
722.0322.676
731.9832.572
741.9322.481
751.8812.380
761.8152.292
771.7572.196
781.7022.109
791.6602.027
801.6031.921
811.5541.823
821.5051.731
831.4591.628
841.4071.542
851.3501.470
861.2981.373
871.2461.275
881.1941.197
891.1371.105
901.0771.004
911.0080.912
920.9480.805
930.8550.693
940.7860.560
950.7110.466
960.6400.361
970.5180.212
980.4090.086
990.2740.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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