Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.9791.146
Median1.6492.703
Mean2.1524.981
75% Quartile2.7575.890
Interquartile Range1.7784.744

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
19.06338.093
27.22126.476
36.54822.819
45.88720.189
55.48518.361
65.12816.161
74.90714.745
84.65213.508
94.45712.373
104.29511.575
114.11910.947
123.97810.290
133.8279.809
143.6929.341
153.5708.851
163.4678.481
173.3878.055
183.2827.640
193.2037.292
203.1247.027
213.0276.776
222.9566.494
232.8866.318
242.8176.051
252.7585.892
262.6895.756
272.6375.547
282.5835.386
292.5225.211
302.4705.015
312.4114.844
322.3544.668
332.3034.535
342.2654.413
352.2154.236
362.1874.104
372.1423.970
382.1023.851
392.0633.752
402.0213.626
411.9873.506
421.9453.420
431.9003.346
441.8633.249
451.8293.163
461.7833.065
471.7492.982
481.7212.873
491.6842.790
501.6492.703
511.6192.626
521.5832.551
531.5552.460
541.5192.380
551.4882.293
561.4632.199
571.4342.141
581.4082.083
591.3792.023
601.3551.940
611.3311.864
621.3071.808
631.2851.756
641.2611.695
651.2391.646
661.2111.598
671.1811.553
681.1551.495
691.1251.436
701.0921.394
711.0681.338
721.0401.293
731.0231.242
741.0041.196
750.9791.146
760.9471.102
770.9191.055
780.8901.012
790.8590.971
800.8350.918
810.8070.869
820.7760.823
830.7500.771
840.7200.729
850.6930.692
860.6670.644
870.6290.594
880.5970.555
890.5590.509
900.5280.458
910.5000.411
920.4710.357
930.4340.300
940.3830.232
950.3520.184
960.2970.130
970.2500.052
980.1900.000
990.1050.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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