Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.083
Median4.079
Mean6.411
75% Quartile7.972
Interquartile Range5.889

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
136.721
228.245
325.204
422.883
521.197
619.088
717.682
816.421
915.236
1014.389
1113.713
1212.996
1312.466
1411.946
1511.397
1610.978
1710.494
1810.017
199.615
209.307
219.015
228.685
238.478
248.163
257.974
267.812
277.563
287.370
297.161
306.925
316.718
326.505
336.344
346.195
355.979
365.817
375.654
385.507
395.385
405.230
415.081
424.975
434.883
444.762
454.655
464.533
474.429
484.292
494.187
504.079
513.982
523.887
533.772
543.671
553.561
563.440
573.367
583.294
593.216
603.111
613.013
622.942
632.874
642.795
652.733
662.670
672.612
682.537
692.461
702.406
712.333
722.275
732.208
742.148
752.083
762.025
771.963
781.906
791.853
801.783
811.718
821.657
831.589
841.532
851.483
861.419
871.353
881.300
891.238
901.169
911.106
921.033
930.955
940.862
950.797
960.722
970.614
980.523
990.418


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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