Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile15.3388.842
Median24.31120.004
Mean26.36123.057
75% Quartile35.39433.937
Interquartile Range20.05625.094

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
167.67671.763
261.28963.913
356.85660.828
454.38058.288
552.49156.402
651.03453.769
749.68951.909
848.28250.162
947.29848.407
1046.36847.079
1145.39845.970
1244.27744.737
1343.37243.795
1442.55942.844
1541.64941.791
1640.89140.947
1740.18439.954
1839.51338.934
1938.86738.027
2038.15637.306
2137.54836.605
2237.02335.818
2336.46135.264
2435.91234.451
2535.40433.937
2634.89033.492
2734.44732.810
2833.94332.265
2933.38731.627
3032.75330.919
3132.37730.266
3231.80629.597
3331.28829.065
3430.79428.538
3530.41627.808
3629.93127.220
3729.41226.630
3828.94826.075
3928.46425.616
4028.09725.009
4127.78024.419
4227.37823.978
4326.92923.606
4426.53323.091
4526.13722.626
4625.70722.102
4725.37721.625
4825.07920.999
4924.75120.522
5024.31120.004
5124.00419.532
5223.69119.058
5323.38718.501
5422.92517.967
5522.50817.424
5622.15116.763
5721.72616.372
5821.30615.976
5920.91515.542
6020.49414.972
6120.23114.404
6219.95713.991
6319.58613.605
6419.18613.133
6518.82412.767
6618.55212.394
6718.21412.047
6817.84911.597
6917.51811.139
7017.19310.811
7116.80910.366
7216.47410.013
7316.1489.602
7415.7249.239
7515.3378.842
7615.0328.491
7714.5988.114
7814.2147.771
7913.8477.447
8013.4797.030
8113.1026.647
8212.6766.289
8312.1885.893
8411.7695.569
8511.3255.295
8610.8884.934
8710.6064.574
8810.2474.292
899.7973.965
909.3613.614
918.9523.300
928.4392.945
937.8572.587
947.2022.179
956.6171.905
965.7671.610
975.1231.216
984.3740.913
993.5820.604


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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