Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South



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Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.793
Median1.747
Mean3.181
75% Quartile3.723
Interquartile Range2.930

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
124.036
216.706
314.392
412.728
511.571
610.181
79.286
88.506
97.790
107.287
116.892
126.479
136.177
145.883
155.575
165.343
175.076
184.816
194.598
204.432
214.276
224.100
233.990
243.824
253.724
263.639
273.509
283.409
293.300
303.178
313.072
322.962
332.880
342.804
352.694
362.612
372.530
382.456
392.394
402.316
412.242
422.189
432.143
442.083
452.030
461.970
471.919
481.851
491.800
501.747
511.699
521.653
531.597
541.548
551.494
561.436
571.401
581.366
591.328
601.278
611.231
621.197
631.165
641.127
651.098
661.068
671.041
681.005
690.969
700.944
710.910
720.882
730.851
740.823
750.793
760.766
770.737
780.711
790.686
800.654
810.624
820.597
830.565
840.540
850.518
860.488
870.458
880.435
890.407
900.376
910.348
920.315
930.281
940.241
950.212
960.180
970.134
980.095
990.051


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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