Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South



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Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South ( Jun 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile12.9769.363
Median22.54018.326
Mean25.54523.878
75% Quartile35.10833.189
Interquartile Range22.13223.826

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
173.83688.242
266.97876.156
362.29671.442
458.66367.581
556.24664.730
654.30660.779
752.29758.012
850.47555.433
948.96952.868
1047.71550.946
1146.50749.353
1245.38847.599
1344.35346.270
1443.42144.940
1542.50643.481
1641.45242.325
1740.76240.978
1840.12139.610
1939.32738.409
2038.55437.466
2137.80236.557
2237.04735.549
2336.37934.847
2435.68233.826
2535.10933.189
2634.41832.643
2733.87031.813
2833.22231.157
2932.64330.398
3032.03029.567
3131.42128.811
3230.82328.048
3330.26627.449
3429.72626.861
3529.27026.060
3628.78525.424
3728.27924.794
3827.77124.210
3927.36423.734
4026.92323.111
4126.47322.514
4226.01122.075
4325.60921.707
4425.16721.205
4524.63620.756
4624.07420.258
4723.71119.809
4823.25919.228
4922.87918.793
5022.54018.326
5122.11017.905
5221.74917.487
5321.39717.003
5420.90116.545
5520.47016.084
5620.11615.532
5719.68215.209
5819.29814.885
5918.93414.533
6018.51214.075
6118.13813.624
6217.76913.297
6317.46612.996
6417.13112.628
6516.70612.345
6616.38312.058
6716.04611.793
6815.74611.450
6915.25711.101
7014.96410.852
7114.51910.515
7214.10610.248
7313.7099.938
7413.3099.664
7512.9759.362
7612.6499.096
7712.3688.809
7811.9148.546
7911.5948.297
8011.2187.973
8110.7357.673
8210.3957.391
8310.0887.075
849.7066.813
859.3036.588
868.9086.289
878.4955.984
888.2045.741
897.8125.454
907.3935.138
916.8114.848
926.3974.510
935.8364.155
945.3723.732
954.9123.434
964.2623.096
973.6302.613
982.8562.205
992.1951.741


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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