Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South



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Probability distribution for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South ( Jul 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile25.01013.476
Median37.52527.038
Mean40.97030.704
75% Quartile53.92944.043
Interquartile Range28.91930.568

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1102.98191.061
293.34181.281
386.97277.439
483.70674.275
580.16971.926
677.51468.649
774.83266.334
872.83864.160
971.31661.977
1069.56260.327
1168.20558.949
1266.81857.417
1365.69956.247
1464.52455.067
1563.39753.759
1662.19752.714
1761.17451.483
1860.08650.219
1959.25149.096
2058.28448.205
2157.35547.338
2256.58446.366
2355.60845.682
2454.78644.677
2553.93744.044
2652.99943.495
2752.29342.656
2851.40241.984
2950.72241.199
3050.00640.329
3149.31939.527
3248.55538.707
3347.75038.056
3447.04937.410
3546.47036.517
3645.73235.799
3745.18635.077
3844.69234.400
3944.20733.841
4043.67633.103
4142.95332.384
4242.34031.849
4341.92931.397
4441.25330.772
4540.62630.208
4640.05229.574
4739.46928.997
4838.97128.239
4938.18927.663
5037.52527.038
5137.02026.469
5236.44025.897
5335.93425.227
5435.40324.583
5534.92723.929
5634.30823.133
5733.89322.662
5833.45022.186
5932.95121.663
6032.40920.976
6132.00820.291
6231.58719.791
6331.18719.325
6430.67918.753
6530.19918.309
6629.72117.856
6729.15817.434
6828.72316.885
6928.18216.323
7027.66315.920
7127.06315.372
7226.70814.936
7326.14214.426
7425.55813.973
7525.00713.475
7624.52413.033
7723.96612.555
7823.37012.118
7922.76211.702
8022.09011.163
8121.52210.663
8220.88910.193
8320.3109.667
8419.7449.233
8519.1548.861
8618.5498.368
8717.9677.870
8817.3277.475
8916.6227.011
9015.9366.506
9115.1146.047
9214.3245.519
9313.6164.974
9412.6814.338
9511.7373.900
9610.5893.415
979.3722.746
987.8322.208
996.0431.629


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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