Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1993) (GL)
Sep10.6385.9846.6040.2638.07618.415
Sep-Oct18.96910.4319.8290.30911.45556.807
Sep-Nov23.22813.46011.5060.31714.38465.692

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1038.63947.079
2030.88837.306
3025.78030.919
4021.72325.009
5018.36020.004
6015.32614.972
7012.51110.811
809.5787.030
906.5153.614

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
159.13771.763
252.39763.913
349.29060.828
446.39058.288
545.04956.402
643.45353.769
742.06951.909
840.97950.162
939.78048.407
1038.63947.079
1137.73245.970
1236.57644.737
1335.83643.795
1434.80942.844
1534.12041.791
1633.50940.947
1732.89239.954
1832.09838.934
1931.43538.027
2030.88837.306
2130.20536.605
2229.60735.818
2329.07435.264
2428.55834.451
2528.12733.937
2627.66733.492
2727.23432.810
2826.72732.265
2926.24531.627
3025.78030.919
3125.32230.266
3224.91729.597
3324.45629.065
3424.01928.538
3523.63727.808
3623.22227.220
3722.82626.630
3822.45726.075
3922.15625.616
4021.72325.009
4121.37624.419
4221.06823.978
4320.73023.606
4420.38923.091
4519.97122.626
4619.62422.102
4719.34021.625
4819.02720.999
4918.70220.522
5018.36020.004
5118.06719.532
5217.70719.058
5317.43818.501
5417.12417.967
5516.83817.424
5616.61616.763
5716.32016.372
5816.01915.976
5915.67615.542
6015.32614.972
6114.96914.404
6214.63313.991
6314.39013.605
6414.13613.133
6513.89112.767
6613.58812.394
6713.36012.047
6813.05811.597
6912.78911.139
7012.51110.811
7112.23410.366
7211.93710.013
7311.6239.602
7411.3389.239
7511.0948.842
7610.8258.491
7710.5138.114
7810.2117.771
799.8647.447
809.5787.030
819.2006.647
828.9056.289
838.6375.893
848.3335.569
858.0105.295
867.7294.934
877.3794.574
887.0874.292
896.7683.965
906.5153.614
916.2033.300
925.8462.945
935.4842.587
945.0052.179
954.5041.905
963.9441.610
973.4371.216
982.9230.913
992.2460.604


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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