Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1993) (GL)
Oct8.3314.4473.2250.0463.37938.392
Oct-Nov12.5897.4764.9020.0546.30847.277
Oct-Dec15.5079.3505.7770.0559.76552.260

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1017.45534.415
2013.13825.826
3010.54820.359
408.69515.536
507.15011.750
605.8078.320
704.6575.787
803.5353.683
902.3071.863

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
129.74356.384
225.89649.386
324.10146.638
422.53844.375
521.19742.696
620.04340.354
719.23738.700
818.54137.148
918.00335.591
1017.45534.415
1116.88933.434
1216.26732.344
1315.81731.512
1415.31630.674
1514.86629.747
1614.50129.006
1714.10028.136
1813.77627.243
1913.47226.453
2013.13825.826
2112.83525.218
2212.51724.537
2312.26924.059
2411.99023.359
2511.72622.919
2611.47722.539
2711.24921.958
2811.00321.495
2910.74520.955
3010.54820.359
3110.31919.812
3210.11919.255
339.91518.815
349.74118.380
359.56717.783
369.34417.304
379.20516.827
389.03316.382
398.87516.016
408.69515.536
418.47415.073
428.33914.730
438.20014.441
448.04614.046
457.89513.692
467.76713.296
477.61012.939
487.46112.475
497.28512.125
507.15011.750
517.02811.411
526.89711.074
536.74510.683
546.56610.312
556.4349.940
566.3079.493
576.1779.233
586.0598.971
595.9338.687
605.8078.320
615.6997.958
625.5967.698
635.4797.458
645.3517.168
655.2546.945
665.1426.720
675.0186.512
684.8676.246
694.7475.977
704.6575.787
714.5585.531
724.4435.329
734.3185.097
744.2254.894
754.1374.672
764.0194.478
773.9114.271
783.7584.084
793.6583.908
803.5353.683
813.4293.476
823.2873.285
833.1503.073
843.0042.901
852.9022.755
862.7852.564
872.6822.373
882.5732.224
892.4312.050
902.3071.863
912.1551.696
922.0391.506
931.8881.313
941.7331.092
951.5990.942
961.4450.779
971.2190.558
980.9670.385
990.7140.203


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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