Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Feb0.8341.6290.1300.0002.04011.657
Feb-Mar1.4729.8430.5460.0003.51316.124
Feb-Apr2.19611.8540.9170.0004.19118.822

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101.5754.491
200.9962.811
300.6971.903
400.4901.255
500.3460.846
600.2390.541
700.1520.346
800.0740.201
900.0070.085

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
14.4819.196
23.4157.681
32.9877.088
42.6616.600
52.3986.240
62.1975.739
72.0095.388
81.8555.061
91.7214.735
101.5754.491
111.5094.289
121.4464.067
131.3553.900
141.2913.733
151.2363.550
161.1863.406
171.1393.239
181.0903.071
191.0362.925
200.9962.811
210.9582.702
220.9242.582
230.8912.500
240.8592.381
250.8282.307
260.7952.245
270.7742.151
280.7502.078
290.7241.994
300.6971.903
310.6721.822
320.6501.742
330.6251.680
340.6061.619
350.5841.538
360.5611.475
370.5441.414
380.5271.358
390.5061.313
400.4901.255
410.4731.200
420.4581.161
430.4411.128
440.4241.084
450.4091.045
460.3961.003
470.3850.966
480.3710.918
490.3600.883
500.3460.846
510.3340.813
520.3260.781
530.3120.745
540.3010.711
550.2890.678
560.2780.639
570.2690.617
580.2600.595
590.2480.571
600.2390.541
610.2280.511
620.2170.491
630.2080.472
640.1990.449
650.1920.432
660.1820.415
670.1740.400
680.1660.380
690.1590.360
700.1520.346
710.1430.328
720.1350.314
730.1260.297
740.1170.283
750.1090.268
760.1020.255
770.0950.240
780.0870.228
790.0800.216
800.0740.201
810.0660.187
820.0610.175
830.0530.161
840.0450.150
850.0390.141
860.0320.129
870.0260.117
880.0190.108
890.0130.097
900.0070.085
910.0000.075
920.0000.064
930.0000.052
940.0000.039
950.0000.030
960.0000.021
970.0000.008
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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