Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jun3.7542.4031.4950.3221.60312.645
Jun-Jul12.48515.1996.3901.0627.60655.295
Jun-Aug24.31025.35720.1031.51616.55894.398

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1039.24750.946
2030.52137.466
3024.60329.567
4020.21623.111
5016.49618.326
6013.24314.075
7010.42910.852
807.7197.973
904.8625.138

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
164.19988.242
258.56176.156
353.41671.442
449.62967.581
547.70564.730
645.41360.779
743.62958.012
841.86755.433
940.37052.868
1039.24750.946
1138.08449.353
1237.00647.599
1335.94746.270
1435.01844.940
1534.26843.481
1633.39842.325
1732.63540.978
1831.96039.610
1931.23838.409
2030.52137.466
2129.78936.557
2229.19435.549
2328.59734.847
2428.00233.826
2527.20833.189
2626.70532.643
2726.30531.813
2825.77431.157
2925.24130.398
3024.60329.567
3124.07728.811
3223.59528.048
3323.18627.449
3422.63126.861
3522.16526.060
3621.67125.424
3721.31524.794
3820.84324.210
3920.57323.734
4020.21623.111
4119.79422.514
4219.43722.075
4319.00021.707
4418.60021.205
4518.25520.756
4617.83120.258
4717.44519.809
4817.09919.228
4916.81518.793
5016.49618.326
5116.20317.905
5215.94517.487
5315.60417.003
5415.22116.545
5514.91816.084
5614.53915.532
5714.16515.209
5813.81714.885
5913.50214.533
6013.24314.075
6112.95013.624
6212.71813.297
6312.43912.996
6412.12212.628
6511.87412.345
6611.58512.058
6711.33811.793
6811.08511.450
6910.78411.101
7010.42910.852
7110.12710.515
729.80910.248
739.4729.938
749.2259.664
758.9829.362
768.7349.096
778.4828.809
788.2428.546
797.9568.297
807.7197.973
817.4047.673
827.1657.391
836.8877.075
846.5856.813
856.2976.588
865.9746.289
875.7445.984
885.4535.741
895.1835.454
904.8625.138
914.5244.848
924.2224.510
933.8484.155
943.4663.732
953.1833.434
962.7273.096
972.2462.613
981.8162.205
991.2441.741


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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