Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Product list for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South


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Historical and exceedance probability for Fifteen Mile Creek at Greta South(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1959+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jul8.73012.7964.8940.7406.00242.650
Jul-Aug20.55622.95318.6081.19414.95581.753
Jul-Sep31.11929.55724.8251.45723.47392.144

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1046.57060.327
2037.33248.205
3030.61840.329
4025.77733.103
5021.40927.038
6017.92220.976
7014.84415.920
8011.33711.163
907.6786.506

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
176.79791.061
268.26181.281
362.63377.439
459.35574.275
556.35471.926
653.53568.649
751.23666.334
849.65264.160
948.11361.977
1046.57060.327
1145.55858.949
1244.56657.417
1343.67456.247
1442.66655.067
1541.74853.759
1640.46852.714
1739.54751.483
1838.70650.219
1938.06249.096
2037.33248.205
2136.57947.338
2235.70846.366
2335.03445.682
2434.36044.677
2533.66444.044
2632.87243.495
2732.27042.656
2831.63741.984
2931.11141.199
3030.61840.329
3130.05239.527
3229.56238.707
3328.90538.056
3428.47137.410
3527.84636.517
3627.30235.799
3726.91935.077
3826.54834.400
3926.22033.841
4025.77733.103
4125.25132.384
4224.73231.849
4324.29431.397
4423.83530.772
4523.42530.208
4623.01429.574
4722.56928.997
4822.21728.239
4921.82727.663
5021.40927.038
5120.93826.469
5220.57525.897
5320.20125.227
5419.90424.583
5519.57823.929
5619.21723.133
5718.88322.662
5818.54822.186
5918.19621.663
6017.92220.976
6117.62420.291
6217.28619.791
6316.99819.325
6416.68618.753
6516.42518.309
6616.07917.856
6715.77417.434
6815.47916.885
6915.20816.323
7014.84415.920
7114.53115.372
7214.19014.936
7313.90114.426
7413.54613.973
7513.24713.475
7612.89913.033
7712.44412.555
7812.09312.118
7911.72111.702
8011.33711.163
8110.98810.663
8210.72410.193
8310.3759.667
849.9919.233
859.7018.861
869.3268.368
878.9247.870
888.5447.475
898.1607.011
907.6786.506
917.1666.047
926.8525.519
936.3784.974
945.8704.338
955.2483.900
964.6693.415
973.9092.746
983.2202.208
992.2521.629


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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